TLDR
- Adyen stock crashed 17-20% Thursday following a Q4 revenue miss and disappointing 2026 growth guidance that fell below analyst expectations.
- Fourth-quarter net revenue reached €672 million, up 19% but missing consensus by 2%, while processed volumes of €398 billion also trailed forecasts.
- The company guided 2026 revenue growth at 20-22%, down from prior “low-to mid-20s” expectations and approximately 2% under Street estimates.
- Full-year revenue climbed 21% to €2.36 billion, but currency headwinds from a weaker dollar pressured reported figures throughout the period.
- EBITDA margins expanded to 55% in H2 2025, though 2026 guidance for flat margins at “in-line with 2025” levels disappointed the Street.
Adyen stock took a major hit Thursday, dropping as much as 20% after the Dutch payments processor reported fourth-quarter results that missed expectations and provided weak guidance for the year ahead. The selloff wiped billions off the company’s market capitalization.
The payments firm posted Q4 net revenue of €672 million, reflecting 19% growth on a constant currency basis. That number fell 2% short of analyst projections. Total processed volume for the quarter came in at €398 billion, also missing consensus estimates by 2%.
Second-half revenue totaled €1.27 billion, up 21% year-over-year on a constant currency basis. For the full year, Adyen generated €2.36 billion in net revenue. The company processed €745 billion in volumes during the second half, marking 19% growth versus the prior year.
A weaker US dollar created currency headwinds that weighed on reported results. Jefferies analysts noted the foreign exchange impact dampened otherwise solid operational performance across the business.
Conservative 2026 Outlook Spooks Investors
Management’s 2026 guidance triggered the steepest part of Thursday’s decline. The company projected revenue growth of 20-22% on a constant currency basis, falling short of its previous target range of “low-to mid-20s” growth. The midpoint of the new guidance sits roughly 2% below what Wall Street was expecting.
On profitability, Adyen reported second-half EBITDA of €702.1 million, up 23% from the year-ago period and slightly above consensus. EBITDA margins expanded to around 55% during H2, showing improvement from earlier in 2025.
However, the company’s margin outlook for 2026 failed to meet investor expectations. Management said it expects EBITDA margins to be “in-line with 2025” levels, implying roughly €1.47-1.51 billion in EBITDA. That projection came in approximately 5% below Street forecasts, according to Jefferies.
Competitive Pressures Mount
The company added 10% more employees during the year, ending 2025 with 4,771 staff members. The headcount expansion supports ongoing efforts to scale operations and compete in crowded payment processing markets.
Adyen reiterated its longer-term target of achieving EBITDA margins above 55% by 2028, compared to the roughly 53% level achieved last year.
Intensifying competition from both established payment companies and emerging fintech players has pressured growth rates. US tariff policies have also created challenges for Asian e-commerce merchants that make up part of Adyen’s client base.
Jefferies characterized the quarter as “solid, albeit below expectations” while noting the softer 2026 guidance would likely pressure shares. The firm suggested management may have incorporated conservative assumptions into the forecast.
Shares traded at €920.20 in Amsterdam by mid-morning, down 20.41% from the previous close. The steep decline reflected investor disappointment with both the Q4 miss and the reduced growth outlook for 2026.
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