TLDR
- TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge maintains a Buy rating on Amazon with a $255 price target, expecting the company to beat Q3 estimates and provide strong Q4 guidance.
- Wall Street expects Amazon Q3 earnings of $1.56 per share (up 9.1% year-over-year) and revenue of $177.7 billion (up 12%).
- Blackledge projects AWS revenue will grow 18.3% in Q3 and 19% in Q4, accelerating from the 17.5% growth seen in Q2 2025.
- Amazon plans to invest $1.16 billion in Belgium between 2025 and 2027 to develop infrastructure and enable same-day delivery service.
- Amazon stock has risen only 1.1% year-to-date due to tariff pressures and AWS growth lagging behind cloud competitors.
Amazon stock has had a rough year so far. The shares are up just 1.1% year-to-date.
That’s well behind the S&P 500. It also trails mega-cap peers like Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Netflix.
The culprit? Tariff pressures and slower AWS growth compared to other cloud providers.
But one top analyst thinks the tide is about to turn. TD Cowen’s John Blackledge just reiterated his Buy rating on Amazon with a $255 price target.
He expects the company to beat Wall Street’s Q3 estimates. More importantly, he sees “solid” guidance coming for Q4.
Wall Street currently expects Q3 earnings of $1.56 per share. That would represent 9.1% year-over-year growth.
Revenue estimates sit at $177.7 billion. That’s up about 12% from last year.
Blackledge thinks Amazon will top both numbers. His revenue estimate runs 1% above consensus.
His operating income projection? That’s 9% higher than what Wall Street expects.
AWS Growth Could Be the Catalyst
The real story here is AWS. Amazon’s cloud division has been growing slower than competitors.
That’s weighed on investor sentiment. But Blackledge sees things picking up in the second half of 2025.
He projects AWS revenue will grow 18.3% year-over-year in Q3. That’s faster than the 17.5% growth seen in Q2.
The catalyst? Generative AI workloads are ramping up.
Amazon has made heavy infrastructure investments. Those are starting to ease supply constraints.
Blackledge expects the acceleration to continue. He sees AWS growing 19% in Q4 2025.
His analysis suggests generative AI spending will increase 4x over the next three years. That’s a pretty good tailwind.
Amazon’s other businesses are doing well too. E-commerce continues to benefit from record delivery speeds.
The company is seeing strong demand for everyday essentials. Rural market expansion is adding to the momentum.
Advertising growth remains robust. All three divisions should contribute to the Q3 beat.
European Expansion Plans Take Shape
Amazon isn’t just focused on results at home. The company just announced plans to invest $1.16 billion in Belgium.
The investment will run from 2025 through 2027. The money will go toward infrastructure development.
Amazon wants to strengthen its partnership with Belgian mail operator Bpost. It’s also working more closely with local small and medium businesses.
Eva Faict, Amazon’s head for Belgium and the Netherlands, laid out the plan. The company wants to enhance supply chains in Belgium.
The goal? Enable same-day delivery service.
Amazon currently employs 400 people in Belgium. It has invested about $800 million in the country over the past decade.
Wall Street remains firmly in Amazon’s corner. All 43 analysts covering the stock rate it a Buy.
The average price target sits at $267.88. That implies about 21% upside from current levels.
Blackledge’s Q4 estimates also run ahead of consensus. His revenue projection is 1% higher.
His operating income estimate beats the Street by 9%. He expects continued strength from AWS, advertising, and e-commerce in the fourth quarter.
