Key Highlights
- Clinical trials for Amgen’s MariTide GLP-1 therapy demonstrated weight reduction approaching 20%, rivaling Eli Lilly’s Zepbound
- Future quarterly dosing regimen for MariTide could offer significant advantages over current monthly administration
- Truist Securities upgraded AMGN price target from $319 to $325 while keeping Hold rating intact
- First quarter 2026 revenue projection from Truist stands at $9.18 billion, significantly exceeding $8.58 billion consensus
- Wall Street observers identify pathway for AMGN to revisit $388 peak, representing 11% upside potential
Since April 2025, Amgen shares have climbed 25%, modestly underperforming the S&P 500’s 29% advance during the identical timeframe. The biotechnology giant currently commands a $186.4 billion market capitalization, with shares trading at approximately 15 times forward earnings—a valuation approaching the high end of its five-year historical range.
The company’s experimental GLP-1 treatment MariTide has captured growing interest across the investment community. Clinical trial participants experienced weight reductions approaching 20%, positioning the therapy competitively against Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which achieves weight loss in the low-20% range. MariTide’s performance also surpasses Lilly’s oral medication Foundayo, which demonstrated approximately 12% weight reduction in studies.
During January’s JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Amgen executives indicated MariTide may transition to quarterly administration. This represents an improvement over the current monthly injection schedule and offers a distinct competitive advantage versus Zepbound’s weekly dosing requirement.
Capturing a modest share of the obesity market could substantially impact Amgen’s financial performance. JPMorgan researchers project the global GLP-1 marketplace could reach $200 billion by decade’s end. Even a $5 billion revenue contribution from MariTide would represent approximately 13% growth relative to analyst projections of $37.8 billion in 2026 full-year sales.
Phase 3 trial readouts for MariTide are anticipated in early 2027. Historically, analysts progressively increase revenue forecasts as pivotal data approaches, transitioning from conservative probability-adjusted models to more optimistic projections.
Truist Securities Raises Target on Expected Q1 Performance
Truist Securities elevated its AMGN price objective to $325 from $319 this week while maintaining its Hold recommendation. The investment firm anticipates first quarter 2026 revenue reaching $9.18 billion compared to Street consensus of $8.58 billion, alongside non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.24 versus the $4.77 consensus estimate.
Truist’s quarterly forecasts exceed consensus across multiple key products including Repatha ($874 million), Prolia ($878 million), Evenity ($598 million), and Tezspire ($487 million). The firm additionally increased long-term projections for Krystexxa following enhanced patent protection extending through 2040.
The securities firm raised MariTide’s probability of commercial success based on strengthened competitive positioning within obesity therapeutics.
Solid Fundamental Business Supports Growth Thesis
Amgen’s established product portfolio continues delivering robust performance independent of GLP-1 prospects. Fourth quarter revenue exceeded analyst expectations, while earnings surpassed forecasts by nearly 12%. The management team has beaten earnings estimates in 17 of the past 20 reporting periods. Total revenue is projected to expand just under 3% throughout 2026, supported by multiple recently launched therapies in early commercialization phases.
The company recently restructured $4 billion in outstanding debt at more favorable interest rates. This refinancing limits future expense growth, potentially allowing MariTide revenue to translate more efficiently into bottom-line expansion.
Cantor Fitzgerald maintains a Neutral stance with a $350 price objective. William Blair reaffirmed its Outperform rating following successful Phase 3 results for TEPEZZA, Amgen’s thyroid eye disease treatment, which achieved a 77% proptosis response rate compared to 19.6% for placebo.
AMGN’s all-time high of $388, established earlier this year, sits approximately 11% above present trading levels.
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