TLDR
- Investment bank Morgan Stanley forecasts Apple’s robotics division could reach $133 billion in annual revenue by 2040
- Apple is building a tabletop robot with iPad-style display that turns when users speak, potentially launching 2027
- Analysts predict US households will buy 415,000 humanoid robots yearly by 2040 priced around $30,000 each
- Apple’s 2.3 billion device ecosystem and $130 billion cash position provide foundation for robotics entry
- Research from Apple’s shelved autonomous vehicle program now powers the company’s robotics efforts
Apple’s next revenue driver could be humanoid robots according to a new Morgan Stanley analysis. The investment firm projects the tech company could generate $133 billion annually from robotics within 15 years.
Erik Woodring and his team at Morgan Stanley estimate Apple will capture 9% of the robotics market by 2040. The forecast represents roughly 30% of Apple’s current total revenue.
Apple is working on a tabletop robot equipped with an iPad-like screen. The device rotates toward people when they speak to it. Industry sources indicate the product could hit the market around 2027.
Household Robot Market Potential
Morgan Stanley forecasts 415,000 American households will purchase humanoid robots each year by 2040. This equals 1.65% penetration of US homes.
The cumulative number of household robots would total 1.6 million units nationwide. Each robot would carry an average price of $30,000 according to analyst projections.
Woodring expects pricing to decline gradually over time. The current estimate matches what consumers spend on entry-level vehicles.
In an upside scenario, Morgan Stanley believes Apple’s robotics business could reach $300 billion by 2040. This assumes higher market share and faster adoption rates.
Apple’s Strategic Position
Apple holds several advantages for entering the robotics space. The company maintains $130 billion in cash and equivalents for investment and development.
The tech giant operates a base of 2.3 billion active devices worldwide. This installed base includes 1.4 billion iPhones collecting visual data.
Apple’s canceled car project provides valuable resources. The company repurposed Project Titan’s research and technology for its Robotics division. Apple invested one billion dollars through Softbank in related technologies years ago.
The company excels at integrating hardware, software, and custom chips. Apple manufactures consumer electronics at enormous scale with strong supply chain relationships.
Morgan Stanley outlined markers that would signal serious robotics investment. These include expanding Apple Intelligence capabilities and ramping up AI engineer hiring.
Additional indicators are accelerated patent applications and improved data collection systems. Strategic partnerships or robotics company acquisitions would confirm commitment.
Growing Robotics Competition
Multiple tech companies are racing into robotics. Foxconn will deploy humanoid robots at its Nvidia AI server plant in Houston using Nvidia technology.
Amazon reached one million robots deployed across fulfillment centers in June. The retailer tests Agility Robotics’ Digit humanoid in warehouses and explores delivery applications.
Nvidia markets its Isaac Gr00t platform and Jetson AGX Thor hardware for robot training. CEO Jensen Huang describes the robotics sector as a multitrillion-dollar opportunity.
Tesla continues developing its Optimus humanoid robot line. Elon Musk posted that 80% of Tesla’s future value depends on robots.
Technical obstacles still exist for consumer robots. Vision systems need refinement to navigate around people, pets, and household items safely.
Robots require better dexterity for handling breakable objects like dishes and glasses. Current models operate slowly and excel only at repetitive, predetermined tasks.
Practical deployment for spontaneous household activities remains years away. Price points must drop considerably before mass market adoption becomes realistic.
Apple’s tabletop robot represents the likely first product according to Morgan Stanley. The 2027 timeframe aligns with Apple’s typical development cycles.
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