Key Takeaways
- Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight stance on Apple with a price target of $315
- The firm’s AlphaWise survey from late 2025 revealed iPhone upgrade rates reached unprecedented levels
- China market showed a 9-point year-over-year increase in upgrade rates
- Apple is projected to be the sole major smartphone producer expanding market share in 2026
- Customer interest in paying for Apple Intelligence features decreased compared to last year
Apple received a positive market reaction on Monday following the release of Morgan Stanley’s late-2025 AlphaWise Global Smartphone Survey, which revealed exceptional iPhone replacement momentum as the company enters 2026.
Shares climbed approximately 1% during premarket hours.
Erik Woodring, the analyst covering the stock with an Overweight recommendation, maintained his $315 valuation target. The survey results reinforce his perspective that Apple’s competitive position exceeds current Wall Street consensus expectations.
The global blended iPhone upgrade rate reached 37% in the survey — representing a 2-point year-over-year increase and setting a new survey record. In China, a region that has generated investor apprehension, upgrade rates surged 9 points year-over-year, also establishing new highs.
Apple stock was hovering near that price point entering Monday’s session, with the technology giant commanding a market capitalization of $3.64 trillion and trading at a P/E ratio of 31.47.
Consumer switching to Apple reached a 5-year peak in the survey. Desired average storage capacity increased 18% year-over-year. Additionally, 27% of surveyed users in the installed base expressed interest in a foldable iPhone — a device category Apple has not yet entered.
Revenue Projections Exceed Consensus
Woodrring stated his expectation that Apple will stand alone among major global smartphone manufacturers in gaining market share during 2026, according to survey data.
His iPhone revenue projection for fiscal 2026 runs 3% higher than Street consensus, anticipating 6% growth compared to the consensus 3%. For fiscal 2027, his estimate exceeds consensus by 4% — representing what he characterizes as the most robust two-year consecutive iPhone growth period in more than ten years.
Apple generated $435.6 billion in revenue over the trailing twelve months, demonstrating 10% growth.
A Notable Weakness
The survey didn’t deliver universally positive signals. Consumer sentiment regarding Apple Intelligence — the company’s artificial intelligence feature suite — and willingness to spend on it both weakened year-over-year.
Memory component price inflation is also anticipated to drive global smartphone prices upward, with Android device makers viewed as better positioned to capitalize on this trend compared to Apple.
Additional analyst firms have recently shared their perspectives. BofA reduced its Apple price target to $320 from a previous level, while maintaining a Buy rating, based on expectations surrounding a foldable iPhone debut in 2026. Bernstein reaffirmed an Outperform rating with a $340 target, highlighting Apple’s approach of offering expanded price point diversity to capture additional market share.
Apple COO Sabih Khan recently made a visit to the company’s Shenzhen research facility and conducted meetings with supply chain partners — indicating sustained operational attention on the China market.
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