TLDR
- Apple set to ship 247.4 million iPhones in 2025, surpassing its 2021 record of 236 million units with 6.1% year-over-year growth
- iPhone 17 series reverses China decline with 17% Q4 growth and over 20% market share in October and November, turning projected 1% drop into 3% growth
- Company forecast to generate over $261 billion in revenue for 2025, up 7.2% year-over-year, setting new records for both shipments and value
- Apple will outship Samsung in 2025 for the first time in 14 years as iPhone 17 drives most of the 1.5% worldwide smartphone market growth
- Planned delay of base iPhone 18 model until spring 2027 expected to cause 4.2% shipment decline in 2026 according to IDC
Apple is closing out 2025 with its strongest performance ever. IDC forecasts the company will ship 247.4 million iPhones this year.
That number crushes Apple’s previous record from 2021 when it shipped 236 million units. The iPhone 17 lineup is responsible for the 6.1% year-over-year jump.
Every major market is contributing to the growth. But China is writing the real success story here.
Apple grabbed over 20% market share in China during October and November. The company ranked first both months according to IDC’s China Monthly Sales data.
iPhone 17 Flips China Performance
The China numbers represent a complete turnaround. IDC had originally projected a 1% decline for Apple in the country for 2025.
Now the research firm expects 3% growth instead. That’s a four-point swing driven entirely by iPhone 17 demand.
Fourth quarter shipments in China are forecast to surge 17% year-over-year. IDC senior research director Nabila Popal called the demand “massive” in her analysis.
Local players like Huawei had been chipping away at Apple’s position. The iPhone 17 launch reversed that trend immediately.
Apple now leads its competition by a wide margin in China based on current market share. The US and Western Europe are also showing renewed strength after recent slowdowns.
The worldwide smartphone market is only growing 1.5% total in 2025. Apple is driving most of that expansion according to IDC data.
Revenue Hits New Peak
Apple isn’t just winning on unit sales. The company is forecast to exceed $261 billion in revenue for 2025.
That represents 7.2% year-over-year growth. It’s a new record for value alongside the shipment milestone.
CEO Tim Cook told investors in October to expect an all-time revenue record in the December quarter. He also predicted a best-ever revenue performance for the iPhone line specifically.
Apple’s own projections call for 10 to 12 percent year-over-year revenue growth. The standard iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro models are seeing particularly strong demand.
The iPhone Air hasn’t matched those performance levels. But the overall lineup is clearly connecting with buyers across price points.
Counterpoint Research projects Apple will outship Samsung in 2025. That would mark the first time in 14 years Apple has topped Samsung in total smartphone shipments.
Next year presents different challenges though. Apple is changing its release schedule for 2026.
The iPhone Fold and iPhone 18 Pro models will launch in September 2026 as planned. But the lower-priced iPhone 18 won’t arrive until spring 2027.
That breaks Apple’s traditional pattern of releasing all models in the fall. IDC predicts the shift will cause iOS shipments to drop 4.2% in 2026.
A global memory shortage will compound the problem. Supply constraints and price increases are expected across the entire smartphone market next year.
IDC forecasts total global smartphone shipments could decline 0.9% in 2026. The combination of supply issues and Apple’s lineup timing changes will create headwinds.
The iPhone 17 performance in 2025 gives Apple a strong foundation heading into a more difficult 2026. China’s turnaround alone represents a major win for the company after months of market share losses to local competitors.
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