TLDR
- Apple stock down 5-6% in early 2026, but Goldman Sachs, Evercore ISI, and Citi see buying opportunity ahead of January 29 earnings
- Goldman projects 13% iPhone revenue growth while Evercore predicts 17% increase driven by premium model sales
- Citi estimates 82 million iPhone units sold in December quarter, above Wall Street consensus
- iPhone Fold expected to ship 4.5 million units in fall 2026, scaling to 25.4 million in fiscal 2027
- Services revenue forecast to grow 14% despite slower App Store growth of 7%
Apple shares have fallen roughly 5-6% year-to-date heading into the final weeks of January. But multiple Wall Street firms are telling investors not to panic.
Goldman Sachs, Evercore ISI, and Citi all see the pullback as a chance to buy before Apple reports December quarter results on January 29. Each firm expects the iPhone maker to beat earnings estimates.
Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng pointed to commodity cost inflation and App Store concerns as likely drivers of the recent weakness. He doesn’t think those factors will derail the quarter.
The firm forecasts fiscal Q1 2026 earnings of $2.66 per share, matching consensus. Goldman expects iPhone revenue to rise 13% year over year.
Unit shipments should grow 5%, including a 26% jump in China. Price and mix improvements add another 8 percentage points to revenue growth as customers buy higher-end models.
Premium Models Driving Revenue Beat
Evercore ISI takes an even more optimistic view. The firm added Apple to its Tactical Outperform list Tuesday and reiterated its $330 price target.
Evercore predicts iPhone revenue will climb 17% from last year. That’s six points above the Street’s 11% consensus estimate.
The firm says strong demand for premium models during the holiday quarter will push average sales prices higher than expected. Apple remains Evercore’s top pick for 2026.
Citi analysts agree on the iPhone strength. They expect Apple sold 82 million units in the December quarter, beating consensus forecasts.
The firm kept its Buy rating but lowered its price target to $315 from $330. Rising memory prices could squeeze margins in upcoming quarters.
Apple shares dropped 1.2% to $252.59 in premarket trading Tuesday as broader markets sold off following tariff threats from President Trump.
iPhone Fold And Services Growth
Goldman Sachs sees iPhone momentum continuing for at least two years. The upcoming iPhone Fold will play a key role.
The bank projects 4.5 million Fold units in fiscal fall 2026. That number explodes to 25.4 million in fiscal 2027.
Apple plans to shift toward a biannual iPhone launch cycle. New software through iOS and Siri 2.0 updates should also drive demand.
Services revenue is forecast to grow 14% despite App Store spending slowing to 7% growth. iCloud+, AppleCare+, and traffic acquisition costs are filling the gap.
New App Store ad formats should boost growth later in fiscal 2026. Goldman believes Apple’s Google Gemini partnership reinforces the iPhone as the primary device for AI tools.
Citi’s 82 million unit estimate reflects strong consumer preference for the latest iPhone 17 models through year-end. Sales skewed toward higher-priced devices during the holidays.
Goldman maintains its view that current weakness presents a buying opportunity into what it calls a continuation of the iPhone refresh cycle.
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