TLDRs;
- APLD’s explosive AI lease pipeline fuels intense volatility ahead of the next trading session.
- Analysts remain divided as price targets range from deeply cautious to aggressively bullish.
- Heavy insider selling, high leverage and a 272% yearly rally sharpen investor debate.
- Pre-market action on December 10 may define whether bulls or skeptics regain control.
Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) heads into trading on December 10 carrying both enormous expectations and a sharply divided analyst community.
Once known largely for power-intensive crypto-hosting facilities, the company has reinvented itself as an AI data center landlord with billions in long-term contracted revenue, but also persistent losses, high leverage and a stock that routinely swings like an early-stage tech startup.
December 9’s after-hours action captured that split personality perfectly. After a day of heavy intraday movement, shares barely budged once the closing bell rang, hovering just under $33. The calm contrasted sharply with a year defined by violent price moves, as APLD surged more than 270% on the back of hyperscale AI leases and a massive build-out of liquid-cooled, high-density computing campuses in North Dakota.
But even as bulls cite the company’s runway for multibillion-dollar revenue streams, analysts disagree sharply on what comes next.
Applied Digital Corporation, APLD
Huge Leases, Huge Expectations
Applied Digital’s transformation hangs on two cornerstone North Dakota projects: the 400-megawatt Polaris Forge 1 campus and the rapidly expanding Polaris Forge 2 site. Together, these developments represent an estimated $16 billion in long-duration lease commitments, including long-term arrangements with CoreWeave and a top-tier U.S. hyperscaler.
Management positions these sites as foundational to the coming AI compute boom. The first 100 MW of Polaris Forge 1 began lease recognition only recently, with more phases to ramp through 2026 and 2027. If construction remains on time and on budget, Applied Digital could evolve from a speculative growth story into a recurring-revenue machine, a prospect driving aggressive analyst targets as high as $40.
Yet execution remains the linchpin. High-density AI campuses demand precise build timelines, substantial financing, and seamless coordination with tenants. Any delays could ripple instantly into the stock.
Still Growing Fast But Still Unprofitable
The bullish revenue trajectory hasn’t translated to profitability. In its most recent fiscal quarter, Applied Digital delivered 84% year-over-year revenue growth, but still posted a sizable net loss. Adjusted figures show progress, yet stock-based compensation, build-out costs and transition expenses continue to weigh on earnings.
Analysts expect losses to narrow in fiscal 2026, but profitability remains several ramps away. That lag makes APLD a forward-looking trade and a magnet for volatility.
Analysts Disagree, Targets Diverge
Wall Street’s stance reflects the company’s unusual mix of explosive growth and high risk. The consensus rating sits at “Moderate Buy,” but price targets are far from aligned. Some houses warn the stock is running ahead of fundamentals, noting liquidity strains, negative earnings and sharp insider selling. The average target around the mid-$20s signals caution, particularly with shares still trading above that mark.
Other firms, however, argue the market underestimates APLD’s long-term contracted revenue and strategic position in the AI compute build-out, assigning targets near or above $40.
That divergence is precisely what sets the stage for volatility heading into December 10.
What Traders Will Watch Next
With beta near 7, options activity elevated and financing needs still substantial, Applied Digital remains one of the market’s most reactive AI plays. Pre-market movement will be critical, a quiet after-hours tape doesn’t always translate to a quiet open for a stock that can lurch several percentage points on modest order flow.
Macro conditions may also tip the balance. Moves in major AI names, interest-rate expectations or crypto-adjacent equities frequently spill over into APLD’s tape, creating cross-currents even in the absence of fresh company news.
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