TLDRs:
- AMAT shares rise 2.5% as chip sector gains traction.
- Investors eye memory and data-center spending trends closely.
- China restrictions may influence guidance in upcoming earnings call.
- Thursday’s results expected to set tone for 2026 demand forecasts.
Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) saw its stock climb 2.5% on Monday, trading in a range between $315.70 and $332.35, before closing at $330.57 in after-hours activity.
The rally comes as investors turn their attention to the company’s fiscal first-quarter earnings, scheduled for Thursday, February 12, 2026. The semiconductor equipment maker has attracted renewed interest after last week’s market pullback, as traders seek signals on chipmaking-tool demand.
The uptick in AMAT shares also reflected broader strength in the semiconductor sector. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF rose 1.2% during Monday’s session, with Nvidia gaining 2.4%, AMD up 3.6%, and Taiwan Semiconductor increasing 1.8% in U.S. listings. While other equipment names such as ASML recorded modest gains of 1.1%, Lam Research and KLA saw slight declines, highlighting the sector’s uneven but generally positive momentum.
Memory and Data Centers Driving Interest
Investors are closely watching trends in memory chips, particularly DRAM used in servers, as well as advanced packaging technologies. These areas have been key drivers of demand for wafer-fab equipment, and any update on spending levels could significantly impact AMAT’s stock. Analysts note that data-center expansions and cloud infrastructure investments are central to the current equipment debate, making Thursday’s earnings report a critical event for gauging industry health.
Zacks Investment Research forecasts AMAT’s revenue for the quarter at $6.89 billion, slightly above the company’s own guidance of $6.85 billion, plus or minus $500 million. Consensus non-GAAP earnings are projected at $2.19 per share, compared with AMAT’s forecast of $2.18, plus or minus 20 cents. These projections exclude certain items considered outside core performance.
China Restrictions Loom Over Guidance
A significant factor for investors is the company’s exposure to China. Last November, AMAT indicated that tighter U.S. export controls would reduce chipmaking equipment spending in the region during 2026. However, the company also expects stronger overall revenue later in the year.
CFO Brice Hill noted that customer spending on wafer-fab equipment “is likely to accelerate beginning in the second half of calendar 2026,” while CEO Gary Dickerson emphasized that foreign competitors “don’t have the same restrictions.”
This backdrop positions Thursday’s earnings call as equally important for guidance as the actual results. Market watchers will focus on any commentary regarding shipments to China, licensing uncertainties, and timing of customer orders. Even minor shifts in outlook could quickly move the stock, given its sensitivity to sector trends and external regulatory factors.
Thursday’s Call to Set Tone
Investors are preparing for Thursday’s conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET, which is expected to provide more clarity on 2026 demand drivers and memory spending trends. Analysts warn that while current optimism has pushed the stock higher, a cautious outlook or delays in customer spending could quickly reverse the gains.
Applied Materials’ position as a leading chip-equipment maker, combined with strong sector momentum, makes this earnings cycle particularly significant. As the semiconductor industry navigates supply constraints, geopolitical restrictions, and shifting data-center demands, traders will be watching closely to see whether AMAT’s guidance confirms the bullish sentiment driving the stock.
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