Key Takeaways
- AppLovin shares climbed 2.21% during premarket hours Wednesday to $406.80, showing signs of recovery after a year-to-date plunge of 40.93%.
- A tech sector rally fueled by de-escalating Middle East tensions provided support across technology stocks.
- Evercore ISI performed 10 interviews with user acquisition professionals, concluding the stock’s drop doesn’t match the company’s actual performance.
- 80% of industry contacts anticipate AppLovin will capture a larger portion of their user acquisition spending within the next 6-12 months.
- Technical indicators show APP in a fragile position — down 26.9% from its 100-day moving average, with RSI at 40.80 and negative MACD readings.
AppLovin shares showed resilience during Wednesday’s premarket session, advancing 2.21% to reach $406.80 following a challenging period that saw the stock tumble approximately 41% year to date.
The uptick coincided with strength across technology markets, as Nasdaq futures climbed 1.10% in early Wednesday trading while S&P 500 futures advanced 0.80%. Market sentiment received a boost from indications that Middle East tensions could be cooling.
President Donald Trump suggested the U.S. military operation in the region might conclude “within two or three weeks.” Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed willingness to end conflicts subject to security assurances. Trump is scheduled to deliver a national address at 9:00 p.m. ET Wednesday.
Regarding monetary policy, markets remained calm. The CME FedWatch tool indicated a 99.5% probability the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in April. Economist Jeremy Siegel recommended investors adopt a cautious stance until energy market volatility subsides.
Industry Checks Contradict Stock Performance
Despite AppLovin’s significant price decline, Evercore ISI analyst Robert Coolbrith believes the market reaction appears excessive based on firsthand industry feedback.
Between March 18 and March 30, Evercore conducted comprehensive discussions with 10 user acquisition operators — key decision-makers at game publishers, developers, and gaming-focused agencies spanning North America, Europe, and MENA. These industry professionals collectively oversee approximately $1.9 billion in annual user acquisition expenditures.
Eighty percent of respondents indicated they anticipate AppLovin will increase its portion of their UA budgets over the coming 6-12 months. Among these eight contacts, three projected wallet share increases of 3-5 percentage points. Two additional respondents noted that AppLovin’s budget allocation should already be 10-15 points higher based purely on return on advertiser spend metrics.
Multiple contacts highlighted late Q4 platform enhancements as beneficial developments. One mentioned adjustments to retargeting timeframes, while three others identified “creative clustering” as a significant improvement.
Platform Enhancements Continue Influencing Budget Decisions
Product updates implemented earlier in 2025 continue to influence spending patterns. Half of the interviewed contacts reported that transitioning campaign objectives from CPI to CPM has enhanced budget utilization and campaign expansion capabilities. Four respondents noted the switch from D7 to D28 optimization continues to provide advantages. Two of these contacts expressed interest in AppLovin extending the optimization window to D60.
Coolbrith maintained his Outperform rating and $750 price target for the stock.
Technical Analysis Shows Challenges Ahead
From a technical standpoint, APP faces headwinds. The stock currently trades 11.2% beneath its 20-day moving average and 26.9% under its 100-day moving average. The RSI registers at 40.80 — neutral territory with bearish undertones. MACD stands at -19.09 and remains underneath its signal line.
APP’s 52-week trading range extends from $200.50 to $745.61. Key resistance materializes at $473.50, while support appears at $366.50. Over the trailing 12 months, the stock has gained 40.79% despite its year-to-date losses.
Coolbrith’s $750 price target implies an 84% upside from Wednesday’s premarket level.
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