Key Takeaways
- AppLovin shares jumped 2.21% in premarket hours Wednesday to $406.80, showing signs of recovery after a 40.93% year-to-date decline.
- The uptick coincided with a wider technology sector rally fueled by reduced Middle East geopolitical concerns.
- Evercore ISI’s channel checks with 10 user acquisition professionals revealed the stock’s downturn doesn’t reflect actual business performance.
- 80% of surveyed contacts anticipate increasing their AppLovin user acquisition spending over the coming 6 to 12 months.
- Technical indicators remain bearish — the stock trades 26.9% under its 100-day moving average, RSI registers 40.80, and MACD shows negative momentum.
AppLovin shares posted modest gains in Wednesday’s premarket session, climbing 2.21% to $406.80 following a challenging period that saw the stock plummet roughly 41% year to date.
The upward movement aligned with a broader technology sector recovery, as Nasdaq futures advanced 1.10% early Wednesday while S&P 500 futures climbed 0.80%. Market sentiment brightened amid indications that Middle East geopolitical pressures might be subsiding.
President Donald Trump indicated the U.S. military operation in the region could conclude “within two or three weeks.” Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed willingness to cease hostilities contingent on security assurances. The White House announced Trump would deliver a national address at 9:00 p.m. ET Wednesday.
Regarding interest rates, markets remained steady. The CME FedWatch tool indicated a 99.5% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current rates in April. Economist Jeremy Siegel recommended investors maintain defensive positions until energy market volatility subsides.
Field Research Contradicts Stock Decline
Notwithstanding the stock’s significant downturn, Evercore ISI analyst Robert Coolbrith concluded the selloff appears excessive based on firsthand industry intelligence.
Between March 18 and March 30, Evercore conducted 10 comprehensive interviews with user acquisition operators — key decision-makers representing game publishers, developers, and gaming-focused agencies spanning North America, Europe, and MENA regions. These contacts collectively oversee approximately $1.9 billion in annual user acquisition expenditures.
Eighty percent of respondents indicated they anticipate AppLovin will capture a larger portion of their UA budgets within the next 6 to 12 months. Three of these eight contacts projected wallet share increases of 3 to 5 percentage points. Two additional respondents acknowledged AppLovin’s budget allocation should already be 10 to 15 points higher based purely on return on advertiser spend metrics.
Multiple contacts identified late Q4 product modifications as beneficial developments. One highlighted an adjustment to retargeting windows, while three others mentioned “creative clustering” as a significant improvement.
Recent Platform Updates Continue Influencing Spending Decisions
Platform enhancements introduced earlier in 2025 continue reshaping budget allocations. Half of the surveyed contacts noted that transitioning campaign objectives from CPI to CPM has enhanced budget fulfillment and campaign scalability. Four respondents cited the shift to D28 optimization from D7 as an ongoing positive factor. Two of these contacts expressed interest in AppLovin extending the optimization window further to D60.
Coolbrith maintained his Outperform rating alongside a $750 price target for the stock.
Technical Indicators Signal Continued Weakness
From a technical standpoint, APP faces considerable challenges. The stock currently trades 11.2% beneath its 20-day moving average and 26.9% below its 100-day moving average. The RSI stands at 40.80 — indicating neutral territory with downward bias. MACD registers -19.09 and continues trading below its signal line.
APP’s 52-week trading range extends from $200.50 to $745.61. Critical resistance appears at $473.50, while support emerges at $366.50. Despite the year-to-date weakness, the stock has gained 40.79% over the trailing 12-month period.
Coolbrith’s $750 price target implies an 84% upside potential from Wednesday’s premarket trading level.
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