Key Highlights
- Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon indicated AI chip demand “shows no signs of slowing,” fueling ASML’s 5.1% gain
- Though Rasgon didn’t explicitly mention ASML, market participants quickly made the semiconductor supply chain connection
- Bank of America reaffirmed its Buy rating with a €1,598 price target following investor meetings across Asia
- BofA identifies ASML as a “prime beneficiary” from expanding EUV technology adoption and increased memory sector capital expenditures
- BofA’s €52 billion revenue projection for 2028 may prove cautious; the firm anticipates a capital markets day announcement this year
Shares of ASML Holding surged more than 5% during Monday’s trading session following dual positive analyst reports that renewed investor attention on the semiconductor equipment manufacturer.
The rally began with research commentary from Stacy Rasgon, an analyst at Bernstein. While Rasgon’s note didn’t explicitly reference ASML, market participants quickly connected the implications.
Rasgon’s analysis centered on the wider AI semiconductor sector, maintaining that demand “currently shows no signs of slowing” even as AI-focused equities have experienced selling pressure throughout the year.
He highlighted Broadcom (AVGO) as particularly promising, projecting the company could potentially quadruple its 2025 earnings to exceed $20 per share. Nvidia (NVDA) could see earnings expand from below $5 in the previous year to $12 or higher by 2027. At the time of this writing, ASML shares were changing hands near $1,369, representing approximately a 3.9% intraday increase.
The Supply Chain Link Between ASML and AI Chip Leaders
The connection works through several stages: increased AI semiconductor demand translates to higher revenue for chip design companies such as Nvidia and Broadcom. This demand cascades to semiconductor foundries like TSMC, which must expand manufacturing capabilities. Capacity expansion requires purchasing additional equipment — specifically, ASML’s advanced lithography systems.
Rasgon additionally pointed to persistent supply constraints stemming from inadequate chip manufacturing capacity. This environment strongly supports sustained demand for ASML’s specialized lithography technology.
While ASML’s current valuation stands at 46.5 times trailing twelve-month earnings, Wall Street analysts project 19% compound annual earnings growth over the coming five years. If Rasgon’s AI demand forecast proves accurate, this growth trajectory could support the current premium valuation.
Bank of America Projects Strong Growth Through 2027 and Into Next Decade
In a separate research report, Bank of America analyst Didier Scemama shared findings from recent investor meetings throughout the Asian region.
His primary conclusion: the memory chip cycle “likely to remain strong through at least 1H27E.” This outlook supports ASML’s order pipeline extending well into the coming year.
BofA outlined three major growth drivers. First, high-NA EUV technology adoption is projected for 2028, led by TSMC and SK Hynix. Equipment availability reached 80% at 2025’s conclusion and is expected to hit 90% by the end of 2026. Scemama’s model forecasts 15 high-NA system deliveries in 2028.
Second, low-NA EUV manufacturing capacity is anticipated to reach maximum levels by Q4 2027, with 22 tool shipments projected for that year. BofA believes ASML may announce expanded EUV production capacity during 2026.
Third, BofA anticipates ASML will conduct a capital markets day presentation later this year and believes the company may elevate its 2030 revenue guidance to a range between €53.7 billion and €65.4 billion.
Bank of America currently projects €52 billion in 2028 revenue and characterizes this forecast as “increasingly conservative” relative to broader analyst consensus.
BofA maintained its Buy recommendation and left its price objective unchanged at €1,598, designating ASML as its preferred stock within the semiconductor equipment sector.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
