TLDR;
- ASML has lost over $130 billion in value in less than a year due to export bans and tariff fears.
- The company’s inability to ship its most advanced chipmaking tools to China has slashed revenue potential.
- Analysts remain bullish, citing ASML’s dominant role in the EUV market and future growth tied to High NA machines.
- A potential trade deal between the U.S. and Europe could stabilize investor sentiment and boost ASML’s stock.
Dutch semiconductor giant ASML has shed over $130 billion in market value in under a year, as geopolitical tensions and trade barriers rattle the global tech sector.
Export Curbs Slam ASML
The company’s valuation, which peaked at $429.5 billion in July 2024, has now dropped to just under $297 billion. The sharp decline is largely attributed to continued export restrictions to China and mounting uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs on European chip firms.
ASML is a linchpin in the global semiconductor supply chain. It’s the world’s sole producer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, critical tools used to fabricate the most advanced computer chips. Despite this near-monopoly and high demand for its technology, the Dutch company has been unable to ship its most cutting-edge machines to China due to government-imposed restrictions.
This policy, enforced by both Dutch and U.S. authorities, has significantly limited ASML’s access to one of the world’s largest semiconductor markets.
“All the equipment manufacturers in the space have come down because they are concentrating all the fears around the U.S. restrictions to China,” said Stephane Houri, head of equity research at ODDO BHF.
U.S. Tariff Threats Stir Further Market Anxiety
On top of the export curbs, the looming threat of new tariffs by former President Donald Trump, who has made global trade a centerpiece of his political agenda, has added a layer of volatility for semiconductor firms. During a recent earnings call, ASML CFO Roger Dassen acknowledged that tariffs could have a “material impact” on the firm’s performance in 2025.
Analysts suggest that the broader debate around over-investment in artificial intelligence could also be fueling market skepticism. While companies like Intel and Samsung continue to invest in next-generation chipmaking, investors are beginning to question whether demand can keep pace with capacity expansion.
Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive
Even as external pressures mount, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about ASML’s long-term prospects. Many cite the company’s dominance in EUV and its recent rollout of High NA (high numerical aperture) machines, tools priced over $400 million each, as strong indicators of future growth.
Wells Fargo, in a recent client note, said ASML “remains positive on growth opportunities” heading into 2025 and 2026. The firm’s strategic alignment with major industry players like Intel and Samsung supports this outlook.
ASML’s stock has experienced a mixed year, down nearly 24% year-over-year, yet up 8% year-to-date. According to LSEG data, analysts have set a target price of just over 779 euros, representing about 17% upside from current levels.
Still, any meaningful recovery in ASML’s valuation may depend on geopolitical shifts. A trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe, for instance, could ease market tensions and provide some relief for ASML and other European chipmakers.
