TLDR
- ASML posted Q3 revenue of ā¬7.5 billion with earnings per share of ā¬5.49, beating analyst expectations.
- Q4 sales guidance ranges from ā¬9.2 billion to ā¬9.8 billion with gross margins up to 53%.
- AI demand continues expanding across logic and DRAM customers, driving 15% projected annual growth.
- China sales expected to decline starting 2026, but CFO Roger Dassen dismisses stockpiling concerns.
- Company shipped first advanced packaging product and bought back ā¬148 million in shares during Q3.
ASML shares jumped over 3% Wednesday following third-quarter results that topped expectations. The Dutch chip equipment giant reported revenue of ā¬7.5 billion and net income of ā¬2.1 billion.
Earnings per share came in at ā¬5.49, beating the analyst consensus of ā¬5.44. The company’s gross margin reached 51.6% for the period.
CEO Christophe Fouquet described it as a strong quarter. The results matched company guidance despite missing some market forecasts.
The fourth-quarter outlook drove investor optimism. ASML expects sales between ā¬9.2 billion and ā¬9.8 billion with gross margins reaching 53%.
Full-year revenue growth is projected at 15%. This forecast is supported by continued strength in advanced chipmaking and AI investments.
AI Investments Fuel Customer Spending
The company is seeing expanding demand from AI-related chip production. This momentum now includes both leading-edge logic and advanced DRAM manufacturers.
Fouquet noted “continued positive momentum around investments in AI” extending to more customers. The trend represents a broadening of AI demand beyond initial adopters.
ASML shipped its first advanced packaging product during the quarter. The TWINSCAN XT:260 i-line scanner delivers four times the productivity of existing equipment.
This launch marks the company’s entry into 3D integration technology. The move positions ASML in the growing advanced packaging market.
The company’s partnership with French AI firm Mistral is progressing. ASML plans to integrate AI technology across its product range to improve efficiency and throughput.
China Revenue Decline Expected in 2026
Management issued a cautious outlook for its China business. Revenue from Chinese customers is expected to drop starting in 2026.
The decline follows exceptionally strong performance in China during 2024 and 2025. However, total 2026 sales should still match or exceed 2025 levels.
CFO Roger Dassen addressed concerns about customer stockpiling. He ruled out this explanation for the anticipated sales drop.
“The reason I rule out stockpiling is because systems that we ship are actually in a chips factory,” Dassen told reporters. The comment indicates equipment is being deployed rather than stored.
Analyst Outlook and Share Buybacks
Goldman Sachs analysts viewed the results as mixed. The bank highlighted strong Q4 guidance and steady EUV demand but noted a cautious 2026 outlook.
Analyst Alexander Duval pointed out the lack of a clear growth acceleration story for next year. The anticipated China revenue decline creates uncertainty about 2026 performance.
Goldman Sachs maintains a ā¬935 price target, representing roughly 10% upside from current levels. The bank suggests the guidance may be deliberately conservative.
Demand for EUV machines remains robust. The ramp-up of High NA systems is progressing faster than expected.
ASML will pay an interim dividend of ā¬1.60 per share on November 6, 2025. The company repurchased ā¬148 million in shares during Q3 as part of its ā¬12 billion buyback program launched in 2022, with ā¬5.9 billion completed to date.
