TLDR
- Bernstein maintains Outperform rating with $1,642 price target on ASML before Wednesday’s Q4 earnings report
- Import data points to EUR 9.7 billion revenue, beating EUR 9.5 billion consensus, with China orders at record EUR 3.27 billion
- Final booking report expected to show at least EUR 8 billion as logic and DRAM makers increased 2026 spending plans
- Chipmaker capital expenditure rising across board: TSMC $56 billion, Samsung $40 billion, with 25% flowing to equipment
- Shares gained 100% since April and 25% this month as sole provider of EUV lithography technology
ASML steps into the spotlight Wednesday with its fourth quarter earnings release. Bernstein SocGen Group stands by its Outperform rating and $1,642 price target ahead of the report. The target implies 16.6% upside from the current $1,407.63 level.
Recent momentum has been strong for the stock. Shares have doubled since April and climbed 25% in January alone.
Bernstein expects ASML to deliver results above consensus forecasts. Import data analysis suggests revenue could reach EUR 9.7 billion. That’s EUR 200 million higher than the Street’s EUR 9.5 billion estimate.
China activity stands out in the data. Chinese imports totaled EUR 3.27 billion during Q4. This figure represents an all-time high for orders from China.
Chinese chipmakers are accelerating equipment purchases. They’re buying deep ultraviolet technology to expand production capabilities before potential policy changes.
Final Booking Numbers Draw Focus
This quarter marks the last time ASML will report booking figures publicly. The disclosure makes Wednesday’s numbers especially meaningful for market participants.
Bernstein projects strong booking performance. Advanced logic manufacturers and DRAM producers both raised their 2026 capital expenditure guidance in Q4 2025.
Market expectations now sit at EUR 8 billion minimum for bookings. Bernstein suggests actual results could exceed this baseline.
The company occupies an unmatched competitive position. ASML is the exclusive supplier of EUV lithography systems needed for next-generation chips. Yole Group analyst John West describes ASML as “the only game in town” for this critical technology.
Spending Wave Supports Demand Outlook
Major semiconductor producers are opening their wallets wider. TSMC plans 37% higher capital spending at $56 billion for 2026. Samsung Electronics targets a 24% increase to $40 billion.
SK Hynix is aiming for 25% growth to $22 billion. Micron Technology projects a 45% jump to $20 billion in capital expenditure.
Roughly 25% of total chipmaker spending goes toward manufacturing equipment. ASML captures the majority of this segment due to its technology advantage. This ratio may grow as AI processors require more complex production steps.
ASML’s customer base includes every leading chipmaker. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Intel Corporation rely on its tools. Demand tied to Nvidia chip production also boosts the business.
Apple, Alphabet, and Qualcomm Incorporated create additional demand. These technology leaders need advanced semiconductors for AI computing platforms.
Mizuho analyst Kevin Wang identifies “China business upside” as a 2026 catalyst. While competition exists in mature technology nodes, industry experts predict ASML will maintain dominance. TechInsights analyst Dan Hutcheson explains that switching equipment suppliers carries too much execution risk given the massive capital commitments involved.
Revenue growth hit 22.77% over the trailing twelve months. Analyst consensus points to a Strong Buy rating on the stock. The average price target stands at $1,488.64, suggesting 5.33% upside from current trading levels.
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