TLDR
- BigBear.ai stock climbed 16% following Swiss National Bank’s 51.1% stake increase to 552,100 shares in Q2 2025
- Institutional buying accelerated with Vanguard acquiring 6.79 million shares and BlackRock adding 3.6 million shares
- Ask Sage acquisition delivers $25 million in annual recurring revenue, strengthening subscription-based business model
- Third-quarter revenue reached $33.14 million, beating forecasts despite 20.1% year-over-year decline
- Wall Street consensus sits at Hold with $6.33 price target as analysts remain split on the stock’s outlook
BigBear.ai shares soared 16% Thursday after the Swiss National Bank revealed a major position increase. The move highlights growing institutional appetite for the defense-focused AI company.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., BBAI
The stock hit $7.03 with trading volume reaching 169.9 million shares. That represents a 78% spike above the normal daily average of 95.2 million shares.
Regulatory filings show the Swiss National Bank expanded its BigBear.ai holdings by 51.1% in the second quarter of 2025. The central bank purchased 186,600 additional shares, bringing total ownership to 552,100 shares valued near $3.75 million.
Other major players followed suit. Vanguard Group added 6.79 million shares during the third quarter. BlackRock increased its position by more than 3.6 million shares in the same timeframe.
The institutional buying wave comes as BigBear.ai has surged 86% over six months. The stock now carries a market capitalization of roughly $3.07 billion with a beta of 3.44.
Government AI Platform Drives Growth Strategy
The company completed its $250 million Ask Sage acquisition this year. The secure generative AI platform already serves government agencies and defense networks nationwide.
Ask Sage contributes approximately $25 million in annual recurring revenue according to analyst estimates. This shifts BigBear.ai toward more stable, predictable subscription income versus project-based contracts.
The government sector focus provides a competitive moat. Security clearances and established relationships create barriers to entry for competitors trying to break into this market.
BigBear.ai maintains a healthy $391 million cash position as of the latest quarter. Management has financial flexibility to pursue additional acquisitions or invest in product development.
Financial Results Show Revenue Challenges
Third-quarter numbers revealed mixed performance. Revenue totaled $33.14 million, edging past the $31.82 million consensus estimate among analysts.
However, that figure declined 20.1% compared to the prior year’s third quarter. The company reported a $0.07 per share loss, missing the expected $0.06 loss.
Analysts project full-year EPS of -$0.28 for 2025. The company operates with negative margins and posted a negative return on equity of 26.11%.
Balance sheet metrics appear solid with a current ratio of 3.13 and quick ratio of 3.13. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at a modest 0.18.
Analyst Community Remains Divided
Wall Street coverage shows no clear consensus on BigBear.ai’s direction. Two analysts rate the stock a Buy while two assign Hold ratings and one maintains a Sell.
HC Wainwright projects the highest upside with an $8.00 price target. Cantor Fitzgerald maintains an Overweight rating and $7.00 target price.
The average price target across all analysts sits at $6.33. This implies potential downside from the current $7.03 trading level.
Institutional ownership accounts for 7.55% of all outstanding shares. Director Dorothy Hayes recently sold 22,000 shares at $6.08 each, trimming her position by 8.52%.
Goldman Sachs dramatically increased its stake by 569% in the first quarter. The firm now holds 2.34 million shares worth approximately $6.69 million.
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