TLDR
- BigBear.ai stock jumped 20% Wednesday following a 6% gain Tuesday after beating earnings expectations with a 3-cent loss per share versus the 7-cent loss analysts predicted.
- The company announced a $250 million acquisition of Ask Sage, a generative AI platform serving over 100,000 users across defense and national security agencies.
- Third-quarter revenue reached $33.1 million, down 20% year-over-year but beating Wall Street’s $31.8 million estimate, while the company posted $2.5 million in net income for its second quarterly profit ever.
- Ask Sage expects annual recurring revenue to grow sixfold to $25 million in 2025, with the deal expected to close in late Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026.
- BigBear.ai stock has climbed 214% over the past 12 months through Monday’s close, driven by government contracts and AI sector enthusiasm, though the company maintains a high beta of 2.47.
BigBear.ai Holdings stock continued its climb Wednesday, rising 20% to $7.28 after posting solid third-quarter results and announcing a major acquisition. The AI software company reported a loss of 3 cents per share for the quarter.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., BBAI
Analysts had expected a loss of 7 cents per share. Revenue came in at $33.1 million, beating the $31.8 million estimate.
The company posted net income of $2.5 million. This marks only the second quarterly profit in BigBear’s history and the first since 2023.
Revenue declined 20% compared to last year. The company maintained its full-year guidance of $125 million to $140 million in revenue.
The stock jumped 6.1% to $6.06 on Tuesday after gaining 18% in premarket trading. Wednesday’s surge added another 20% to the share price.
Defense Platform Acquisition
BigBear announced Monday it will acquire Ask Sage for $250 million. Ask Sage operates a generative AI platform designed for defense and national security agencies.
The platform already serves more than 100,000 users. CEO Kevin McAleenan said it supports 16,000 government teams and hundreds of commercial companies.
Ask Sage provides secure access to AI models from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. The platform delivers outputs based on verified information in government databases.
Ask Sage expects annual recurring revenue of roughly $25 million in 2025. This represents sixfold growth from the previous year.
The deal is expected to close in late Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026. McAleenan said the acquisition creates an integrated AI platform connecting software, data, and mission services.
Market Performance and Volatility
The stock has climbed 214% over the past 12 months through Monday’s close. Year-to-date gains stand at 28% as of Monday.
Government contracts and AI sector excitement have fueled the rally. Defense-related stocks have performed well in 2025.
The Global X Defense Tech ETF has risen 79% this year. Palantir Technologies is the fund’s largest holding.
BigBear carries a beta of 2.47 over the past 52 weeks. This makes it more volatile than Palantir, which has a beta of 2.08.
Tuesday’s surge marked the stock’s 33rd single-day swing of 10% or more in 2025. H.C. Wainwright analyst Scott Buck expects continued volatility as the business scales.
Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an Overweight rating and raised its price target to $7 from $6. The firm said the Ask Sage deal strengthens BigBear’s position in AI and computer vision solutions for national security.
H.C. Wainwright analyst Scott Buck kept a Buy rating with an $8 price target. Buck believes the company remains positioned to benefit from the current administration’s priorities.
McAleenan pointed to opportunities in border security and defense spending. He said these could materialize into contracts next year with help from tax-and-spending legislation.
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