Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin maintained its position above the $70,000 threshold on Friday, posting approximately 7% gains for the week despite significant volatility
- International equity markets bounced back from midweek losses, pushing S&P 500 futures toward the 6,840 level
- Crude oil experienced a dramatic 16%+ weekly surge following Iran’s tanker blockade in the Strait of Hormuz
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield extended its rally to a fourth consecutive session, moving from 3.93% to 4.15%
- Market expectations for dual Fed rate reductions in 2026 have plummeted from nearly 80% probability to under 50%
Bitcoin maintained its position above the $70,000 level on Friday as worldwide equity markets found stability following a volatile week marked by escalating tensions in the U.S.-Israel-Iran situation. However, the fixed income markets are painting a contrasting picture.
The trading week opened with aggressive selling pressure across risk-on assets after Iran initiated a blockade of oil tankers navigating through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage responsible for approximately one-fifth of global oil transportation. This action propelled crude prices upward by more than 16% throughout the week, marking the most substantial weekly advance since March 2022.
Bitcoin experienced a weekend decline to approximately $65,000 before mounting a recovery. The leading cryptocurrency briefly touched $74,000 midweek on Wednesday, subsequently retracing to $70,182 by Friday’s opening session, maintaining its trajectory toward a roughly 7% weekly advance.
Equity indices mirrored this volatile pattern. S&P 500 futures contracted to a multi-week bottom of 6,718 on Tuesday before rebounding toward the 6,840 mark. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed over 2% for the week, entering negative territory for 2026. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite demonstrated greater resilience, positioning for modest weekly appreciation.
Washington’s intervention to stabilize petroleum markets through naval escort commitments for vessels transiting the strait helped alleviate initial panic. Nevertheless, energy prices remained stubbornly elevated.
Treasury Yields Continue Upward Trajectory
The more significant market concern centers on developments within fixed income markets. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield extended its ascent for a fourth consecutive trading session, advancing from 3.93% to 4.15%. Meanwhile, the two-year yield surged from 3.37% to approach 3.60%.
Escalating yields signal increasing investor anxiety that elevated petroleum costs will rekindle inflationary pressures, constraining the Federal Reserve’s capacity to implement monetary easing.
Prior to the geopolitical escalation, market participants had priced in approximately 80% probability for two Federal Reserve rate reductions during the current year. That expectation has now collapsed below the 50% threshold.
Bryan Tan, a trader at Wintermute, said the rates market is “revealing the tension in this rally,” pointing to strong economic data alongside an inflationary energy shock as a combination that could keep the Fed on hold longer.
Recent American economic indicators reinforced this narrative. The ISM Services index registered 56.1 for February, demonstrating ongoing economic expansion. The ADP employment report revealed 63,000 private sector job additions, exceeding the anticipated 50,000 figure and representing the most robust reading since July 2025.
Alternative Cryptocurrencies and Additional Assets Face Headwinds
The majority of prominent alternative cryptocurrencies declined on Friday. Ethereum retreated 3% to settle at $2,069. XRP surrendered 1.8% to reach $1.39. Solana experienced a 1.6% downtick, while Cardano and Polygon each shed 2.5%. Dogecoin similarly declined 1.8%.
Gold positioned for a weekly loss despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty, pressured by U.S. dollar strength.
Analyst Jack Prandelli observed that petroleum prices historically appreciate 20–30% within 60 days following significant geopolitical disruptions, suggesting current market pricing may inadequately account for supply constraints.
Market attention now pivots to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release. Economic forecasters anticipate job creation around 55,000, representing a deceleration from January’s 130,000 figure. A stronger-than-projected outcome could drive yields substantially higher.
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