TLDR
- Bitcoin is set to finish September up 4.5%, a rare occurrence that has historically led to strong fourth-quarter performance.
- Data from previous positive September closes shows Q4 returns averaging over 53%, with October typically delivering the strongest gains at 21.8%.
- Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin could potentially climb to $170,000 by the end of 2025 if the trend continues.
- Key onchain metrics including Spot Taker CVD and Coinbase premium index indicate growing buying pressure from US investors.
- Bitcoin currently trades around $114,285 with technical indicators suggesting further upside potential above $114,741 resistance.
Bitcoin is approaching the end of September with a 4.5% monthly gain, trading near $113,100. This positive close breaks the pattern of historically weak September performance for the cryptocurrency.
The green September matters because of what typically comes next. When Bitcoin closed September in positive territory during 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, the following fourth quarter delivered average returns exceeding 53%.
Historical data reveals October as the strongest month in these sequences, averaging 21.8% gains. November typically adds another 10.8%, while December shows more mixed results with an average decline of 3.2%.
These four previous positive September closes led to Q4 returns ranging from 45% to 66%. Applying similar performance to current price levels suggests Bitcoin could reach approximately $170,000 before year-end.
October Performance Key to Year-End Rally
Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson notes that roughly 60% of Bitcoin’s annual gains tend to occur after October 3. His analysis suggests a 50% probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by mid-2026.
Peterson expects this year to follow the positive historical trend based on developing market conditions. However, he points out that major gains typically begin around the third week of October rather than immediately.
Bitcoin currently trades at $114,285 with 24-hour trading volume reaching $58.2 billion. The price shows a slight 0.16% daily decline while maintaining position above key support levels.
Buying Pressure Builds Across Multiple Indicators
Onchain data supports the bullish outlook. The Spot Taker CVD turned positive on Monday for the first time since July 14. This metric tracks the difference between market buy and sell volumes, with positive readings indicating stronger buying pressure.
The Coinbase premium index shows sustained accumulation by US-based investors. Third quarter data revealed concentrated buying activity at levels not seen since early July.
These indicators align with the technical setup showing Bitcoin consolidating near $114,154 after breaking through a descending channel pattern. The 100-period simple moving average at $112,808 provides support.
The Relative Strength Index cooled to 60 from previous overbought levels near 80. This reset maintains bullish structure while reducing immediate overheating concerns.
Policy and Technical Developments
Massachusetts lawmakers are reviewing legislation that would allocate up to 10% of the state’s stabilization fund to Bitcoin reserves. The proposal faces challenges in the Democrat-controlled legislature but reflects growing state-level interest in cryptocurrency holdings.
Bitcoin Core v30 is expected to remove the 80-byte OP_RETURN data limit, sparking community debate about Bitcoin’s future direction. The change would enable larger on-chain data storage beyond financial transactions.
Billionaire investor Tim Draper maintains his prediction that retailers will eventually accept only Bitcoin. He has backed his outlook with investments in major cryptocurrency platforms Coinbase and Robinhood.
Price charts show an ascending triangle formation near current levels. A breakout above $114,741 resistance could push Bitcoin toward $116,150 and the September high of $117,850. Continued momentum might enable a move toward $120,000.
Support holds at $113,000, with additional backing from the 50-period moving average at $111,680. The technical structure favors further upside as seasonal patterns align with positive momentum indicators.
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