TLDR
- Bitcoin faces key resistance at $117,000-$118,000 with breakout potential to trigger new bull run
- Strong support zone between $111,000-$113,000 where 5.5% of BTC supply accumulated
- Mid-sized wallets added 1 million Bitcoin while whales distributed 715,000 BTC since March
- Technical indicators show RSI reclaiming 50 level with miner accumulation patterns
- Current price levels may offer final discount opportunity before reaching new highs
Bitcoin price has rallied 6% in September despite typical bearish seasonal trends. The world’s largest cryptocurrency now trades around $115,905, approaching a critical resistance zone that could determine its next major move.
The digital asset topped near supply levels between $115,600 and $117,300 following strong weekly performance. Market analysts are watching for a decisive close above $117,300 to confirm bullish momentum.
Two key on-chain metrics highlight $117,000 as a pivotal level. The CVDD Channel and Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price have identified this zone as an area where Bitcoin historically faces indecision.
Crypto analyst Joao Wedson notes these indicators have shown “eerily accurate levels” throughout Bitcoin’s price history. A sustained breakout above $118,000 would confirm the bull run’s continuation.
The CVDD Channel estimates historical price floors using coin destruction data and Fibonacci envelopes. The Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price combines market averages with Fibonacci bands to identify structural zones.
Strong Support Forms at $113K Level
Technical analysis reveals critical support between $111,000 and $113,000. This mirrors patterns observed in Q2 when Bitcoin consolidated below resistance before breaking to fresh highs above $120,000.
UTXO realized price distribution data shows 5.5% of Bitcoin supply accumulated between $110,000-$113,000. This represents one of the most actively traded ranges recently, suggesting strong conviction at these levels.
The relative strength index has reclaimed the 50 level and now tests it as support. This setup historically precedes renewed buying momentum, particularly seen during June’s price action.
Miner behavior reinforces the bullish outlook. The combination of technical structure shifts and miner accumulation provides a constructive framework as long as $112,000 holds.
Fresh Money Enters as Whales Distribute
Mid-sized “Shark” wallets holding 100-1,000 Bitcoin have added nearly 1 million coins since July 2024. Their collective balance increased to 5.939 million BTC, signaling fresh institutional participation.
Meanwhile, larger whale wallets reduced holdings by 324,000 BTC since March. Humpback wallets cut positions by 391,000 BTC, releasing approximately 715,000 Bitcoin total into the market.
This supply absorption by smaller participants represents a healthy market structure shift. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr highlights this distribution pattern as constructive for long-term price stability.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin faces a critical juncture at current levels with $118,000 representing the key breakout threshold. The combination of strong accumulation support at $113,000 and fresh investor participation suggests limited downside risk.
Technical patterns mirror Q2 consolidation that preceded July’s rally above $120,000. If Bitcoin maintains support above $111,000, analysts expect a breakout toward new all-time highs.
The current zone may represent the final major discount before Bitcoin reaches fresh price discovery. Upcoming Federal Reserve decisions could provide additional catalyst for renewed upside momentum.
