TLDR
- Bitcoin fell below $111,000 after historic 911,000 job revision cut by Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Federal Reserve rate cut probability reaches 88% for September 17 meeting decision
- Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.1 billion in fresh inflows over past 10 trading days
- Tom Lee forecasts Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by 2025 with supportive Fed policies
- Technical indicators show potential rally to $129,000 following wedge pattern breakout
Bitcoin experienced downward pressure following the largest jobs revision in US history. The Bureau of Labor Statistics removed 911,000 positions from payroll data in an unprecedented adjustment.
The cryptocurrency dropped below $111,000 as markets processed the employment shock. The revision included 880,000 private sector jobs and 31,000 government positions.
August unemployment climbed to 4.3% while new job creation disappointed at just 22,000 versus 75,000 expectations. Core inflation remained elevated at 2.9% according to latest data.
Despite market turbulence, institutional demand for Bitcoin remains robust. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1.1 billion in net inflows during the past 10 days. Monday alone saw $368 million in fresh capital according to SoSoValue tracking.
Fed Policy Shift Creates Bullish Setup
The Federal Reserve faces mounting pressure to cut interest rates at its September 17 meeting. CME FedWatch data indicates 92% probability of a quarter-point reduction.
Weak employment figures have sparked speculation about a larger half-point cut. Prediction markets assign nearly 20% odds to this more aggressive scenario.
Historical patterns support optimism for risk assets during Fed easing cycles. The 1990-1991 recession saw stocks initially decline 20% before rebounding 30% following rate cuts.
Gold has already surged 40% year-to-date ahead of potential policy shifts. Bitcoin has gained 20.3% in 2025 and could mirror precious metals performance.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee maintains his bullish Bitcoin outlook despite current volatility. He believes the cryptocurrency could “easily” reach $200,000 with favorable monetary conditions.
Technical Analysis Points Higher
Bitcoin has rebounded from its rising wedge pattern’s lower support line. This technical development suggests bulls are regaining market control.
The cryptocurrency maintains its position above the 20-week exponential moving average at $108,500. This level provides critical support for any continued upward momentum.
A decisive break above $115,000-$116,000 resistance could accelerate buying interest. Technical targets point toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $129,000.
Bitcoin previously reached a 2025 high of $124,200 in August before pulling back. A double-top formation emerged at $123,027 with current support at $111,000.
Failure to hold present levels could trigger a retest of $105,000. This represents the next key Fibonacci retracement zone for potential buyers.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Market analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory heading into the Fed decision. Derive’s Sean Dawson assigns just 23% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $140,000 by December.
However, strong ETF inflows demonstrate continued institutional interest despite price volatility. Both retail and professional investors appear positioned for potential Fed-driven upside.
Bond market pricing suggests two additional rate cuts by year-end following September’s expected move. This dovish policy stance historically benefits alternative assets like Bitcoin.
The September 17 Fed announcement represents a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency markets and broader risk sentiment.
