TLDR
- Bitcoin price holds steady at $115,000 following August CPI data showing 0.4% monthly increase
- Jobless claims surged to 263,000, highest since October 2021, supporting Fed rate cut expectations
- Markets price 75 basis points of rate cuts by year-end despite inflation rising to 2.9% annually
- Technical analysis shows $113,500 as key support level for potential breakout above $115,000
- Crypto IPO activity continues with Figure Technology raising $787 million
Bitcoin price maintained stability around $114,610 on Thursday as traders processed mixed economic signals from August inflation and employment data. The world’s leading cryptocurrency showed resilience despite conflicting market pressures.
The August Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% monthly, marking the sharpest increase since January. Annual inflation climbed to 2.9%, while core CPI advanced 0.3% monthly and 3.1% yearly, meeting analyst expectations.
However, weekly jobless claims painted a different picture of economic health. Claims jumped to 263,000, well above the 235,000 forecast and reaching levels not seen since October 2021. This labor market weakness has strengthened arguments for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Bitcoin showed minimal reaction to the CPI release, maintaining modest gains throughout the trading session. The cryptocurrency has recovered from mid-August lows but remains well below earlier yearly peaks.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drive Sentiment
Interest rate policy continues to be the primary catalyst for Bitcoin price movements. Lower rates typically benefit cryptocurrencies by increasing market liquidity available for speculative assets.
Markets are now pricing 75 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end. The September 17 Federal Reserve meeting remains the focus, with traders seeing full probability of at least a quarter-point reduction.
Some analysts suggest an 11% chance of a larger half-point cut given the employment data weakness. Producer price data earlier this week also came in softer than expected, supporting the dovish narrative.
The combination of contained core inflation and labor market softness provides the Fed with room to ease monetary policy. This backdrop has historically supported Bitcoin price appreciation.
Technical Analysis Points to Key Levels
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin faces critical resistance near $115,000. Breaking above this level could trigger momentum toward previous highs and potentially new record territory.
Support remains firm around $113,500, which several analysts identify as the key level for maintaining bullish structure. A break below this zone could signal deeper retracement toward $110,000.
Order book data reveals approximately 2,000 BTC worth of liquidity on exchanges, suggesting preparation for increased volatility. This liquidity could either absorb selling pressure or fuel rapid price movements.
The cryptocurrency trades near three-week highs, indicating improving market sentiment. However, some traders warn of potential fakeouts similar to previous CPI releases that saw initial rallies followed by selloffs.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin price prediction for the near term hinges on Federal Reserve policy decisions and technical breakout confirmation. The $115,000 resistance level represents the immediate target for bullish continuation.
If Bitcoin breaks above $115,000 with volume, the next resistance zones appear around $118,000 and $120,000. These levels align with previous consolidation areas and Fibonacci retracement levels.
Downside scenarios point to support at $113,500, with deeper retracement possible toward $110,000 if economic data shifts Fed expectations. The labor market weakness could ultimately prove more influential than inflation concerns for monetary policy.
The current consolidation pattern suggests Bitcoin is building energy for the next major move. Rate cut confirmation at the September Fed meeting could provide the catalyst for breaking higher.
