TLDR
- Bitcoin volatility dropped from 60% to record low 30% in 2025
- JPMorgan models show Bitcoin undervalued by $16,000 versus gold
- Corporate treasuries control over 6% of Bitcoin supply
- Fair value target set at $126,000 based on gold comparison
- Technical analysts warn of potential correction below $117,570
Bitcoin trades at $111,264 while JPMorgan Chase argues the leading cryptocurrency remains undervalued compared to gold. The investment bank’s latest research highlights how Bitcoin volatility has reached unprecedented lows.
Bitcoin’s six-month rolling volatility has plummeted from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to approximately 30% today. This marks the lowest volatility reading in Bitcoin’s history.
The cryptocurrency now trades at just twice the volatility of gold, representing the tightest spread ever recorded between these assets. JPMorgan believes this convergence makes Bitcoin more appealing to institutional investors.
Volatility-Adjusted Models Point Higher
JPMorgan’s analysis suggests Bitcoin’s market capitalization needs to increase 13% to match gold’s $5 trillion in private investment. This calculation points to a fair value price target of roughly $126,000 for Bitcoin.
The bank’s volatility-adjusted models indicate Bitcoin currently trades about $16,000 below its theoretical fair value when compared to gold. This represents potential upside for the digital asset.
Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou credit the volatility decline to accelerating corporate treasury adoption. Corporate entities now hold more than 6% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply.
The research team draws parallels to central bank quantitative easing programs that previously reduced bond market volatility. Corporate Bitcoin accumulation appears to create similar market stabilization effects.
Index Inclusion Drives Institutional Flows
Passive investment flows are increasing through equity index inclusion of Bitcoin-exposed companies. Metaplanet received an upgrade to FTSE Russell’s mid-cap category and addition to global investment benchmarks.
Kindly MD is raising up to $5 billion following a $679 million Bitcoin acquisition. New market participants are building treasury positions to compete with established holders like MicroStrategy and MARA Holdings.
However, technical analysts express caution about Bitcoin’s near-term price action. Veteran trader Peter Brandt identifies potential bearish reversal patterns in Bitcoin charts.
Brandt points to double-top formation that could signal further declines. He believes Bitcoin must reclaim the $117,570 level to invalidate negative technical signals.
Bitcoin has declined over 12% from its $124,457 all-time high to recent lows near $108,762. This correction contributed to broader cryptocurrency market losses exceeding $400 billion.
On-chain data reveals continued selling from large holders. A prominent Bitcoin whale recently sold 750 BTC worth $83.11 million through Binance exchange.
CryptoQuant metrics show the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has dropped to levels not seen since May 2018. This suggests persistent selling pressure may continue in the short term.
Bitcoin recovered above $112,000 Wednesday as buyers emerged during the selloff. Trading volume declined 19% over 24 hours as market participants remained cautious about direction.
