Key Takeaways
- BTC recovered to approximately $68,000 following a weekend plunge to $63,000
- Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.45 billion in cumulative net inflows across five consecutive trading sessions
- The price rebound was primarily fueled by short position liquidations rather than new bullish momentum
- Technical indicators show RSI climbing from 36 to 41, while trading volume surged from $6.6B to $9.6B
- Betting markets indicate declining probability of BTC reaching $65K or $60K in March
Bitcoin’s valuation surged back toward the $70,000 threshold on March 4, hovering near $68,000 during Asian trading hours.
This rebound came after a dramatic weekend selloff that dragged BTC down to approximately $63,000, sparked by escalating geopolitical tensions across the Middle East region.
According to market maker Enflux, the price recovery stemmed predominantly from forced short liquidations. Bearish traders who positioned for further downside were compelled to close their positions when anticipated military escalation failed to materialize.
“The market is not pricing catastrophe, but it is not pricing resolution either,” Enflux stated in their analysis shared with CoinDesk.
Cryptocurrency markets typically react more swiftly to geopolitical developments compared to conventional financial markets. Enflux characterized Bitcoin as serving as a “pressure valve” for capital flows during periods of elevated uncertainty.
Exchange-Traded Fund Inflows Establish Support
Institutional capital allocation has proven instrumental in maintaining price stability. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted approximately $1.45 billion in aggregate net inflows throughout the previous five trading sessions.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, revealed during a March 2 discussion that numerous institutional investors are viewing the recent correction as an attractive entry opportunity. One prospective institutional client finalized an $11 million allocation following two years of ongoing conversations with Bitwise.
“They’re not surprised that crypto is volatile,” Hougan explained. “They’ve been waiting for an entry point.”
Hougan pointed out that typical Bitwise institutional clients require an average of eight consultation meetings before committing capital, with many operating on quarterly meeting schedules. He emphasized that perceived hesitation frequently reflects standard institutional due diligence protocols rather than lack of interest.
By the fourth quarter, three out of four major wirehouse financial institutions gained authorization to proactively present Bitcoin investment opportunities to their client base.
Blockchain Metrics Reveal Measured Sentiment
Glassnode analytics indicate improving market conditions, though conviction remains tentative.
Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index advanced to 41 from the previous week’s reading of 36. However, it continues trading beneath the 50 level, which typically indicates buyer dominance in the market.
Trading volume expanded to $9.6 billion from $6.6 billion, while spot market order flow has achieved greater equilibrium between buying and selling pressure.
Derivatives markets continue reflecting seller dominance over buyers, and funding rates for leveraged long positions have contracted.
Prediction market platforms reinforce this cautious outlook. The likelihood of Bitcoin declining to $65,000 during March decreased by 11 percentage points to 73%. Similarly, odds of touching $60,000 dropped 10 points to 41%.
A separate Polymarket contract measuring whether Bitcoin reaches $60,000 before $80,000 declined 12 points to 61%.
At publication time, BTC was changing hands at $66,360.
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