Key Highlights
- BTC surged past $72,000 following Israeli PM Netanyahu’s announcement regarding Lebanon ceasefire discussions
- Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has climbed 9% while the iShares Tech-Software ETF has declined 12%
- The February PCE inflation report showed 2.8% YoY growth, matching analyst predictions
- Fourth quarter US GDP underwent a downward revision to 0.5% annualized growth, intensifying recession worries
- Tomorrow’s March CPI release will provide the first inflation snapshot since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, with expectations trending upward
The world’s leading cryptocurrency climbed beyond $72,000 on Thursday as favorable geopolitical developments emerged from the Middle East. Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu instructed his government officials to pursue ceasefire discussions with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah forces. This announcement triggered a reversal in what had initially appeared to be a bearish session for digital asset markets.
Following the announcement, BTC experienced an approximate 3% spike, touching $72,300. Traditional equity markets similarly rebounded, with the Nasdaq registering a 0.65% gain. Meanwhile, WTI crude prices retreated from nearly $103 per barrel to approximately $98.60 in response to the diplomatic breakthrough.
Among major digital currencies, Bitcoin demonstrated superior performance throughout the trading session. Alternative cryptocurrencies including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP posted gains of under 1%, while BTC maintained its dominant position.
The morning session brought February’s PCE inflation figures, which aligned perfectly with market forecasts. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, PCE increased 2.8% on a year-over-year basis, while the core PCE metric showed modest improvement at 3%, declining from January’s 3.1% reading.
BREAKING: February PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, was unchanged at 2.8%, in-line expectations of 2.8%.
Core PCE inflation falls to 3.0%, in-line with expectations of 3.0%.
This marks the final pre-Iran War PCE inflation datapoint.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 9, 2026
Prior to the ceasefire announcement, Bitcoin had already begun recovering momentum, climbing from a session low of $70,500 to approximately $71,200 following the publication of the inflation statistics.
An important consideration is that February’s PCE data reflects conditions before the late-February commencement of the US-Iran military conflict. Market participants and economic analysts are eagerly anticipating updated figures to assess how the ongoing tensions have influenced pricing dynamics.
Diverging Paths: Bitcoin and Software Equities
Bitcoin and technology software stocks have exhibited contrasting trajectories throughout the recent 30-day period. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has experienced a 12% decline across this timeframe, whereas BTC has advanced 9% during the identical window.
The 20-day correlation measurement between Bitcoin and IGV has fallen to 0.34, demonstrating a significant divergence in the performance characteristics of these two asset categories.
Federal Reserve Maintains Position as Economic Slowdown Concerns Mount
Fourth quarter GDP figures for the United States underwent a downward adjustment to 0.5% on an annualized basis, indicating decelerating economic momentum. Nevertheless, market participants exhibited reduced risk aversion, partially attributable to expectations that weakening growth could prompt government liquidity measures.
Wednesday’s release of FOMC meeting minutes revealed that Federal Reserve policymakers maintain openness toward implementing rate reductions during the current year, although a majority indicated willingness to pursue rate increases should inflation remain substantially above the 2% objective. According to CME FedWatch probability indicators, there exists a 98.4% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rate levels at the April 29 policy meeting.
A weakening US dollar has provided tailwinds for Bitcoin, as diminishing confidence in the Federal Reserve’s inflation control capacity typically advantages scarce, finite assets.
Friday’s calendar includes the March CPI data release. Wall Street consensus projections anticipate 3.3% YoY growth, representing an increase from February’s 2.4% figure, constituting the initial inflation measurement since hostilities between the US and Iran commenced.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
