Key Highlights
- BTC declined approximately 3% over the week, retreating from $76,000 to stabilize near $70,000
- Fed maintained current rates while projecting just one reduction in 2026, dampening sentiment for risk assets
- Citi reduced its Bitcoin forecast from $143,000 to $112,000 amid regulatory uncertainty
- Strategy accumulated an additional 22,337 BTC, expanding holdings to 761,068 BTC total
- Morgan Stanley submitted an updated S-1 filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF under ticker MSBT
Bitcoin began the trading week with impressive strength, surging to $76,000 on Tuesday — marking its strongest performance since the beginning of February. However, this bullish run proved short-lived.
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate range at 3.50%–3.75% during Wednesday’s meeting, marking consecutive sessions without adjustment. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted concerns that escalating tensions involving Iran could elevate inflationary pressures, diminishing prospects for monetary easing this year. The central bank’s updated projections indicate a single rate reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, while increasing its PCE inflation forecast to 2.7%.
This more restrictive monetary outlook pressured speculative investments. Bitcoin dipped beneath $69,000 on Thursday before stabilizing around $70,843 by Friday — representing a weekly decline approaching 3%.
Central Bank Stance Pressures Market
Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, observed that the Fed elevated both inflation and economic growth estimates. She characterized the press conference as heavily centered on inflationary concerns, with an overall “rather hawkish” message.
Escalating oil valuations, sparked by Israel’s strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas infrastructure, compounded market anxiety. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, explained: “Increasing energy expenses, postponed monetary loosening prospects, and a strengthening dollar are fostering a more discriminating investment climate.”
The $70,000 threshold has emerged as the critical technical level. Iliya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo Dispatch, suggested maintaining this support “invites a stabilization trade,” whereas breaking below it “reopens the path toward the next support cluster.”
Analyst Downgrade Linked to Legislative Uncertainty
Citi’s Alex Saunders lowered his Bitcoin valuation target to $112,000 from a previous $143,000. This revision stems from legislative gridlock surrounding the Clarity Act — proposed crypto market structure framework. Polymarket probability data shows passage likelihood declining to 60% from approximately 90% in February.
President Trump expressed frustration on Truth Social: “The U.S. needs to get market structure done, ASAP. Americans should earn more money on their money.”
Countering the week’s negative sentiment, Strategy’s Michael Saylor revealed on Monday his company acquired another 22,337 BTC. The firm’s complete position now reaches 761,068 BTC, purchased at a mean cost of $75,696.
Spot Bitcoin ETF activity reflected volatility throughout the week. Monday and Tuesday recorded positive flows of $201 million and $199 million respectively, before reversing to outflows of $163 million and $90 million on Wednesday and Thursday.
Separately, technical analysis shared by crypto account CryptoBullet identified a rising wedge formation in BTC’s chart structure, suggesting a potential downside target beneath $50,000 should the pattern confirm.
Morgan Stanley submitted a second amended S-1 registration with the SEC for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, designated for NYSE Arca listing under ticker MSBT. Approval would represent the first spot BTC ETF launched directly by a prominent US banking institution.
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