Key Takeaways
- Analysis from Mercado Bitcoin demonstrates Bitcoin’s superior performance compared to gold and S&P 500 during 60-day recovery periods following global disruptions
- Following Trump’s tariff declaration in 2025, Bitcoin surged 24% compared to gold’s 8% gain and S&P 500’s 4% increase
- Amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, Bitcoin has gained 2.2% while gold declined 11% and S&P 500 dropped 4.4%
- March 2025 saw US spot Bitcoin ETFs attract $1.32 billion in net inflows, contrasting with $2.92 billion in outflows from gold ETFs
- Bloomberg ETF expert James Seyffart predicts Bitcoin ETFs will ultimately exceed gold ETFs in total assets
Recent analysis conducted by Brazilian cryptocurrency platform Mercado Bitcoin reveals that Bitcoin consistently delivers superior gains compared to gold and the S&P 500 index during the 60-day recovery periods following significant global disruptions.
The comprehensive research, spearheaded by Rony Szuster, Mercado Bitcoin’s research director, examined two-month performance windows after various economic and geopolitical upheavals, encompassing events such as the COVID-19 pandemic emergence and escalating U.S. trade restrictions.
Following the April 2025 tariff announcement from the Trump administration, Bitcoin experienced a remarkable 24% surge over the subsequent 60 days. During this identical timeframe, gold appreciated by 8% while the S&P 500 managed only a 4% advance.
This performance trend was similarly evident during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Bitcoin registered a 21% increase, significantly outpacing both gold and the S&P 500.
Szuster cautioned against premature conclusions regarding Bitcoin’s crisis response. “It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends,” he remarked.
He clarified that market participants frequently liquidate holdings during crisis periods to secure liquidity, which can temporarily suppress even traditionally defensive assets.
Bitcoin Maintains Positive Momentum Amid Middle East Tensions
This recurring pattern continues to manifest during the present U.S.-Iran confrontation. Bitcoin has appreciated approximately 2.2%, climbing from about $65,800 to $67,300.
Gold, conventionally regarded as a crisis hedge, has experienced an approximately 11% decline during the same interval. The S&P 500 has retreated 4.4%, marking its sharpest monthly decline since 2022.
Szuster emphasized that Bitcoin emerged as the top-performing asset across the previous decade, notwithstanding its characteristic volatility.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Signal Shifting Investor Preferences
Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart indicated during an appearance on the Coin Stories podcast that Bitcoin ETFs may eventually overtake gold ETFs in aggregate assets under management.
“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart explained. He highlighted Bitcoin’s multiple functions including digital gold, wealth preservation, portfolio diversification, and growth potential.
“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” he concluded.
Current capital flow patterns support this evolving market sentiment. Throughout March, American gold ETFs experienced net withdrawals totaling $2.92 billion. Simultaneously, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net contributions of $1.32 billion.
The leading US gold ETF witnessed a massive $3 billion single-session outflow on March 4, representing the largest daily redemption in more than two years.
Both commodities have declined over the previous 30 days. Bitcoin has retreated approximately 8% while gold has decreased roughly 8.25%, indicating correlated movement despite contrasting ETF activity.
In December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper observed that gold and Bitcoin have historically demonstrated alternating cycles of relative outperformance.
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