TLDR
- CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin whales are not engaging in large-scale accumulation.
- Exchange-related wallet movements are misleading onchain trackers about whale activity.
- Large Bitcoin holders are still distributing their assets rather than buying more.
- Wallets holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC have shown a steady decline in balances.
- Exchange-traded fund outflows are contributing to the decrease in whale holdings.
Recent onchain data contradicts claims of aggressive whale accumulation in the Bitcoin market, according to research from CryptoQuant. The data suggests that large holders are not buying in bulk but instead continue to reduce their holdings. This trend points to a less aggressive accumulation pattern than some reports have claimed in recent weeks.
Exchange Activity Distorts Whale Accumulation Metrics
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, explained that much of the perceived whale activity stems from exchange-related wallet movements. He stated,
“Exchange consolidation creates misleading signals by inflating the number of wallets with large balances.”
Therefore, data suggesting large-scale accumulation may reflect internal exchange operations, not real buying behavior.
Exchanges frequently move Bitcoin from multiple small wallets into fewer large ones for internal management and compliance purposes. This action mimics genuine accumulation, though it does not involve actual investor purchases. Moreno emphasized that such consolidations often mislead onchain tracking tools.
Filtered data shows that large holders continue distributing Bitcoin, not accumulating it, over the past few weeks. CryptoQuant reported a clear decline in wallet balances across multiple large holder categories. As a result, previous assumptions about a renewed accumulation phase appear unsupported by the underlying data.
Declining Balances Among Large and Medium Holders
Wallets holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC have reduced their balances, reflecting broader distribution trends. CryptoQuant attributes part of this movement to outflows from exchange-traded funds holding Bitcoin. These outflows have continued in the past month, weakening the assumption of sustained institutional demand.
Though the spotlight remains on whales, ETF behavior has changed the asset’s market dynamics since early 2024. The emergence of US spot Bitcoin ETFs introduced new flows, impacting traditional wallet analysis. These ETFs now hold large reserves that affect supply metrics.
While onchain signals from large addresses suggest distribution, it’s not the only trend affecting market structure. ETF-linked outflows add a new layer of complexity to the reading of onchain wallet data. Moreno reiterated that filtering out operational transfers is key to accurate whale behavior tracking.
Long-Term Holders Show New Accumulation Pattern
While whales are not accumulating, long-term holders appear to be buying again, according to VanEck’s Matthew Sigel. He stated, “This cohort has become net accumulators in the last 30 days after their largest sell-off since 2019.” This change in behavior may ease recent selling pressure.
Long-term holders usually act as a stabilizing force by holding through periods of volatility and absorbing market dips. Their net accumulation trend suggests renewed confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value. This group’s behavior contrasts with whales, who continue reducing their exposure.
CryptoQuant’s analysis does not suggest a large-scale shift in whale strategy, but the long-term cohort shows more constructive activity. Sigel highlighted that recent net buying may reduce downward pressure in the short term. This buying activity followed heavy selling that previously affected the market.
As of the latest update, overall whale balances remain lower than earlier in 2024, while long-term holder activity has increased. CryptoQuant maintains that current data does not support a narrative of strong whale accumulation. Instead, recent structural changes show a redistribution of Bitcoin holdings across different investor categories.
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