TLDR
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is staying away from Bitcoin investments until the Federal Reserve pivots to monetary easing
- BTC currently trades near $69,926, representing a 45% decline from its October peak of $126,000
- Hayes cautions that escalating US-Iran conflict could spark selloffs across equities and cryptocurrency markets
- He emphasizes that quantitative easing benefits Bitcoin, not geopolitical conflict — and plans to buy when money printing resumes
- Despite maintaining a $250,000 long-term price forecast, Hayes acknowledges significant near-term downside potential
Arthur Hayes, who co-founded the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has declared he wouldn’t allocate even a single dollar to Bitcoin at current levels. During an appearance on Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories podcast, Hayes explained his decision to remain on the sidelines until the Federal Reserve signals a policy reversal.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes stated.
Bitcoin presently hovers around the $69,926 mark. This represents a steep 45% pullback from the digital asset’s October all-time high of $126,000.
Hayes identified escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran as a primary concern influencing his cautious positioning. According to Hayes, extended military confrontation increases the probability that the Fed will expand its balance sheet operations.
“The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” he explained.
The BitMEX founder drew an important distinction between armed conflict and expansionary monetary policy. He noted that while some market participants believe warfare benefits Bitcoin, he rejects that interpretation.
“Money printing is good for Bitcoin,” he clarified. “That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin — when the central banks start printing money.”
Downside Risk Still on the Table
Hayes also cautioned that Bitcoin faces the possibility of declining below the $60,000 threshold should macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. Such a scenario, he suggested, could unleash a cascade of forced liquidations.
The leading cryptocurrency briefly tested $60,000 support on February 6 before staging a modest recovery. According to Hayes, current valuation levels still leave considerable room for additional downside movement.
He warned that an extended risk-averse climate in traditional equity markets could pull Bitcoin lower in tandem. A comprehensive market correction, he contended, might trigger widespread liquidation events throughout the crypto ecosystem.
Other Analysts More Optimistic
Hayes’ conservative outlook contrasts with more bullish perspectives from other market observers. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently highlighted robust gains in the Nasdaq as an encouraging indicator for Bitcoin.
Van de Poppe suggested there are “not many arguments left for uncertainty” and anticipates additional upside momentum for Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies in coming weeks.
Hayes hasn’t completely dismissed the possibility of a price recovery. He indicated that he doesn’t foresee extended periods where Bitcoin trades beneath the $100,000 threshold going forward.
His ambitious long-term projection of $250,000 per Bitcoin remains unchanged. Hayes has publicly maintained this forecast since at least the latter part of last year.
The exchange founder emphasized that his wait-and-see approach stems entirely from macroeconomic considerations, not from any skepticism regarding Bitcoin’s fundamental long-term value proposition.
He stressed that the critical factor to monitor is the timing of central bank policy transitions from restrictive to accommodative stances. That inflection point, he noted, will mark his re-entry into Bitcoin accumulation.
Following its brief encounter with the $60,000 level on February 6, Bitcoin has entered a modest upward trajectory and currently trades in the vicinity of $69,926.
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