Key Takeaways
- Oppenheimer elevated Blackstone (BX) rating from “Market Perform” to “Outperform” and established a $154 price objective, suggesting approximately 34% potential gain from its recent close around $114.86.
- Covering analyst Chris Kotowski emphasized BX’s impressive performance history dating back to 2009, singling out its real estate division as industry-leading.
- The firm exceeded fourth-quarter projections, delivering earnings per share of $1.75 versus the anticipated $1.54, alongside $4.36B in revenue — representing a 41.4% annual increase.
- Significant stakeholder Holdings IV GP Mana Blackstone acquired approximately 2.87M shares worth $75M during March, expanding its position by 18.2%.
- Shares currently trade around $114.86, substantially below the 12-month peak of $190.09, while the consensus analyst target stands at $155.27.
Blackstone (BX) shares climbed 1.5% during Monday’s opening session following an upgrade from Oppenheimer, which characterized the recent downturn as an excessive market reaction for the alternative investment giant.
Chris Kotowski, the analyst behind the upgrade, observed that BX has endured a “drubbing” despite delivering what he characterized as “outstanding performance.” His newly established price objective of $154 represents roughly 34% upside from Monday’s opening level of $114.86.
With coverage extending back to 2009, Kotowski highlighted the company’s real estate division as its most compelling competitive advantage. He positioned it as “without peer,” identifying Brookfield as the closest competitor though still trailing significantly.
Both real estate and private credit sectors have recently lost investor confidence. However, Oppenheimer’s assessment suggests market anxieties surrounding these segments are exaggerated.
“The current dislocation is giving investors a chance to buy the industry’s premier franchise at a very attractive valuation,” Kotowski wrote.
He additionally identified BX’s “capital light” business structure as a significant advantage. Since the company maintains no controlling insurance affiliate interest and avoids substantial balance sheet commitments, virtually all profits return directly to equity holders.
Robust Quarterly Performance
Blackstone’s latest financial disclosure strengthened the rationale behind the upgrade. The organization announced fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.75, surpassing the Street consensus of $1.54 by $0.21.
Quarterly revenue reached $4.36B, comfortably exceeding expectations of $3.69B while marking a 41.4% year-over-year expansion. The firm also achieved a net profit margin of 20.89% alongside return on equity of 22.17%.
Current full-year earnings projections from the analyst community anticipate EPS of $5.87.
Trading Activity from Insiders and Institutions
Regarding insider transactions, major stakeholder Holdings IV GP Mana Blackstone accumulated approximately 2.87 million shares on March 20th at a mean cost of $26.15 each, representing roughly $75 million in aggregate. This purchase increased their holdings by 18.2%, elevating total ownership beyond 18.6 million shares.
Meanwhile, BX Buzz ML-1 GP LLC divested 7.48 million shares on March 17th — representing a 99.66% stake reduction — at an average sale price of $3.51 per share.
Institutional ownership comprises approximately 70% of outstanding shares.
Broader Wall Street sentiment on BX remains divided. TD Cowen lowered its objective from $164 to $141 while preserving a “buy” recommendation. Evercore adjusted its target downward from $175 to $170, continuing with “outperform.” Barclays established a $124 target alongside an “equal weight” stance. JPMorgan decreased its objective to $122 and maintains a “neutral” rating.
Currently, eleven analysts assign BX a buy recommendation, while eleven others maintain hold ratings. The collective average price target across all analysts reaches $155.27 — establishing a “Moderate Buy” consensus.
The equity is presently trading near its 52-week floor of $101.73, having retreated considerably from its 12-month ceiling of $190.09. The 50-day moving average sits at $117.75, while the 200-day moving average rests at $141.01.
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