TLDR
- Tesla (TSLA) delivered 497,099 vehicles in Q3 2025, crushing Wall Street estimates of 439,600 units
- Model 3 and Model Y deliveries totaled 481,166 units, exceeding forecasts by over 56,000 vehicles
- Production fell 4.8% year-over-year to 447,450 vehicles despite strong delivery numbers
- Energy storage business deployed record 12.5 GWh of products during the quarter
- Analysts estimate over 90% of the delivery surge came from buyers claiming the $7,500 federal EV tax credit before expiration
Tesla shares jumped 3% in premarket trading Thursday after the electric vehicle manufacturer reported record third quarter deliveries. The company delivered 497,099 vehicles during the three-month period ending September 30.
The delivery figure exceeded Bloomberg consensus estimates by more than 57,000 units. Analysts had projected deliveries of 439,600 vehicles for the quarter.
The results represent a 7.4% increase compared to Q3 2024 when Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles. The company called the quarter a new delivery record.
Model 3 and Model Y vehicles accounted for 481,166 deliveries during the period. This represented a 9.4% year-over-year increase for the two models.
The Model 3 and Y numbers beat analyst expectations of 424,828 units by a wide margin. Other Tesla models contributed 15,933 deliveries, falling short of the 17,184 expected but showing a 53% quarter-over-quarter increase.
Production Falls Despite Strong Sales
Tesla produced 447,450 vehicles during Q3 2025. The production total came in below Bloomberg estimates of 450,313 units.
Production dropped 4.8% compared to the same quarter in 2024. Model 3 and Y production reached 435,826 units, down 1.8% year-over-year.
The gap between production and delivery numbers suggests Tesla drew down inventory during the quarter. Other model production totaled 11,624 vehicles, representing a 13% decline from Q2.
Tesla’s energy storage division posted strong results with 12.5 GWh of products deployed. This marked a quarterly record for the business unit.
Federal Tax Credit Drives Demand
The phasing out of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit likely boosted Q3 sales. The Republican-led government ended the credit program, prompting buyers to make purchases before the deadline.
Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management stated the central debate centers on tax credit impact. He estimates over 90% of the delivery upside came from credit-motivated purchases.
Munster noted that while China sales improved quarter-over-quarter, deliveries would likely still be down 5% year-over-year without the tax credit. This compares to declines of 13.5% in June and 13% in March quarters.
Ford CEO Jim Farley predicted EV sales could fall by half after credit expiration. Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned investors after Q2 earnings about “a few rough quarters” ahead.
European Sales Decline
Tesla faces challenges in European markets despite strong overall numbers. European registrations fell to 14,831 units in August, down 22.5% year-over-year.
The decline contrasts with overall European EV market growth of 26.8% in August. New competition and Musk’s political positions may have affected buyer sentiment in the region.
Tesla stock has climbed over 30% during September 2025. The company plans to release full Q3 financial results on October 22 after market close.
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