TLDRs:
- Carvana stock climbs 2.4% after Vanguard reveals 11.86% stake.
- Jefferies maintains Buy rating, citing strong December unit growth.
- Investors monitor earnings ahead of Feb. 18 report for profit trends.
- Web-scrape data shows momentum, but high costs pose margin risks.
Carvana Co (CVNA) shares extended their upward momentum on Wednesday following a regulatory filing showing that The Vanguard Group held an 11.86% stake in the online used-car retailer as of December 31, 2025.
The stock closed up 2.4% at $450.78 and continued slightly higher in after-hours trading, reflecting investor optimism amid year-end sales data and analyst endorsements.
Vanguard Filing Sparks Market Interest
The recent Schedule 13G/A filing disclosed that Vanguard owns 16.78 million Carvana shares, representing nearly 12% of the company’s common stock. Vanguard confirmed the stake is held “in the ordinary course of business” and is not intended to influence control, reassuring investors that the position is strictly passive.
The disclosure comes at a time when Carvana’s stock has shown high volatility, nearly doubling in 2025 and joining the S&P 500 in December, which drew steady index-fund flows and heightened expectations for the company’s upcoming earnings report.
Jefferies Highlights Strong Year-End Sales
Jefferies analysts maintained a “Buy” rating on Carvana with a $550 price target, pointing to preliminary web-scrape data as evidence of robust end-of-year sales. These automated data checks, which track public online listings and consumer traffic, suggest that retail units could grow 44% in the fourth quarter, potentially delivering 7% upside to consensus estimates.
The firm also raised its Q4 EBITDA forecast to $522 million, reflecting the strong momentum detected through these early signals.
Sector Moves and Market Context
Wednesday’s session saw other used-car names generally moving in tandem with Carvana. CarMax shares jumped 5.35%, while ACV Auctions and OPENLANE fell 0.94% and 2.50%, respectively. Despite Carvana’s gains, the broader market showed signs of weakness, demonstrating how sector-specific news can drive short-term trading sentiment.
Investors remain focused on whether the company can sustain growth while navigating high financing costs and consumers increasingly relying on monthly payment plans.
Looking Ahead
While strong unit growth is encouraging, translating momentum into consistent profitability remains a challenge. Analysts caution that web-scrape signals, while informative, can be noisy, and strong retail growth does not automatically translate into healthy margins if pricing pressures or funding issues arise. Carvana is expected to release its next quarterly earnings report around Feb. 18, 2026.
Key metrics investors will monitor include gross profit per unit, retail unit growth, and any updates on financing or inventory management. The company’s ability to maintain growth while improving profitability will be critical for sustaining investor confidence in 2026 and beyond.
Carvana’s recent gains, backed by Vanguard’s substantial stake and positive analyst guidance, underscore the market’s optimism. However, the path forward remains contingent on converting rising sales into lasting profits amid a challenging financing landscape.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
