TLDR
- Mizuho upgraded Circle Internet Group (CRCL) from Underperform to Neutral with a $77 price target
- The upgrade stems from increased USDC usage on Polymarket prediction market platform
- Polymarket shows annualized volumes of $50 billion in early 2026, triple the 2025 levels
- Analyst estimates Polymarket activity could drive 25% upside to USDC’s market capitalization
- Mizuho was previously one of only three analysts with a sell rating on the stock
Circle Internet Group shares jumped 3.4% Wednesday following an analyst upgrade that reflects changing fortunes for the USDC stablecoin issuer.
Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev moved Circle from Underperform to Neutral, setting a price target of $77. The shift marks a reversal from his June 2025 stance when shares traded at $207.
Polymarket Emerges as Growth Driver
The upgrade centers on Circle’s USDC stablecoin gaining traction through Polymarket, a prediction market platform. All bets on Polymarket settle using USDC.
Polymarket’s performance has accelerated sharply. Early 2026 data shows annualized volumes hitting $50 billion. That’s more than triple the platform’s 2025 activity.
The surge in betting activity translates directly to USDC usage. Dolev estimates current Polymarket volumes could boost USDC’s market cap by 25%. More growth could follow.
The platform hosts prediction markets on everything from major sports events to unusual questions. Super Bowl outcomes, Olympic results, and even theological predictions all drive USDC transactions.
From Bearish to Neutral
Dolev’s original concerns painted a different picture for Circle. He cited weak USDC distribution as a primary worry. Declining interest rates added pressure to the business model.
Competition from Tether’s USDT stablecoin also weighed on his outlook. These factors led to his Underperform rating when Circle traded at much higher prices.
The Polymarket data changed his calculus. Mizuho raised its 2026 and 2027 estimates for USDC circulation. Those projections still sit below consensus forecasts, leaving room for conservative optimism.
Before this upgrade, Mizuho stood with just two other analysts maintaining sell ratings. Most Wall Street analysts hold buy ratings on the stock. The upgrade narrows the gap between Mizuho and the broader Street view.
Circle’s business depends on USDC adoption and usage. More transactions mean higher revenue from the stablecoin’s ecosystem.
Polymarket represents a use case that wasn’t on most analysts’ radars months ago. The prediction market platform has grown faster than expected.
The shift in Mizuho’s stance shows how quickly fundamentals can change in crypto markets. Six months ago, Circle faced headwinds from multiple directions. Today, one platform’s growth trajectory has altered the near-term thesis.
Mizuho’s new price target of $77 sits well below the average Wall Street target of $144.14. That gap suggests Dolev remains more cautious than his peers despite the upgrade.
Circle shares have traded in a wide range since going public. The stock hit $207 when Mizuho first issued its sell rating. Current prices sit around $74, reflecting the crypto market’s volatility over the past year.
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