TLDR
- JPMorgan drops Coinbase target to $290 from $399 before Thursday earnings as crypto trading volumes weaken and USDC growth stalls
- Stock has fallen 27% in 2026 and more than 50% since bitcoin’s October record above $126,000
- Analysts forecast Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $734M down from Q3’s $801M with spot volume at $263B
- CFO Alesia Haas sold $56.5M worth of shares on February 6 under pre-arranged trading plan
- Barclays and Compass Point warn subscription revenue will miss $710M-$790M guidance on weak crypto prices
Coinbase faces a challenging earnings report Thursday. Multiple analysts have lowered their targets and expectations. The crypto winter continues to bite.
JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington reduced his December 2026 price target to $290. His previous target sat at $399. Despite the cut, he keeps his Overweight rating intact.
The new target suggests 75% upside from current levels around $165. But that feels distant given recent performance. COIN has shed 27% of its value in 2026.
The damage extends further when looking at the October peak. Shares have plunged over 50% since bitcoin touched $126,000 in early fall.
Trading Activity and Revenue Under Pressure
Worthington expects Q4 adjusted EBITDA to hit $734 million. That marks a decline from the third quarter’s $801 million. Multiple factors contribute to the weakness.
Crypto trading volumes have cooled considerably. The analyst projects spot trading volume of $263 billion for the quarter. That’s down from stronger periods earlier in the year.
USDC stablecoin operations face headwinds too. Worthington models stablecoin revenue at $312 million. Circulation has slowed as market conditions deteriorate.
The Deribit acquisition offers a bright spot. Coinbase completed the derivatives exchange purchase in August. JPMorgan estimates Deribit will contribute roughly $117 million in revenue on $586 billion in volume.
With Deribit included, total transaction revenue should reach $1.06 billion. That’s barely above the previous quarter’s $1 billion figure. The derivatives platform isn’t enough to overcome spot market weakness.
Subscription Business Faces Challenges
The subscription and services segment looks problematic. JPMorgan forecasts revenue of $670 million for the quarter. Coinbase had guided for $710 million to $790 million.
Soft crypto prices hurt this business line across multiple categories. Staking yields have compressed. USDC growth has decelerated. The company may reduce operating expenses to protect margins.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish takes an even more cautious stance. His EBITDA estimate sits roughly 10% below consensus expectations. He’s particularly worried about retail trading.
Budish points to Robinhood data as a warning sign. The rival platform saw retail crypto volumes drop 15% quarter-over-quarter. These volumes typically move in line with Coinbase’s numbers.
Barclays estimates Coinbase processed about $261 billion in exchange volume. That aligns closely with JPMorgan’s projections but suggests limited upside potential.
Compass Point analyst Ed Engel strikes the most bearish tone. He expects disappointment in subscription and services revenue. Engel argues results will show revenue remains tightly linked to overall crypto prices.
Executive Stock Sale Draws Attention
Engel also highlights concerning January trends. He believes trading revenue reflects the weakest retail engagement since the third quarter of 2024. That creates risks for the current quarter too.
CFO Alesia Haas completed a large stock sale on February 6. She sold 362,600 shares for total proceeds of $56.5 million. Prices ranged from $152.10 to $156.72 per share.
The sale used a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan. Haas needed to cover taxes and fees from exercising stock options. She exercised options on 78,433 shares at $18.13 and another 617,668 shares at $6.97.
She also converted 617,668 Class B shares to Class A. The timing just days before earnings catches investor attention.
Thursday’s earnings call will address several critical questions. Management needs to explain early 2026 trading trends and whether January weakness persists. USDC revenue sustainability and Deribit’s ability to offset spot market swings remain open questions.
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