TLDRs:
- Coinbase shares rise 0.9% as Senate prepares for stablecoin rewards discussion.
- Stablecoin income drives revenue growth, exceeding $984 million through September 2025.
- Regulatory uncertainty continues to shape investor sentiment around crypto exchanges.
- Senate vote on H.R.3633 could reshape stablecoin rewards framework for exchanges.
Coinbase Global (COIN) saw modest gains on Monday, closing roughly 0.9% higher at $242.98, while holding steady in after-hours trading.
The uptick comes as the company intensifies its engagement with U.S. lawmakers over stablecoin rewards ahead of a key Senate markup later this week. Traders are closely watching the policy developments, which could directly influence Coinbase’s revenue streams and investor confidence.
Stablecoins, designed to maintain a consistent value often pegged to the U.S. dollar, have grown increasingly central to Coinbase’s business model. With cryptocurrency market prices fluctuating, stablecoin balances now represent a significant revenue source. Coinbase’s most recent quarterly disclosure reported $354.7 million in revenue from stablecoins for Q3 alone, contributing to nearly $985 million over the first nine months of 2025.
Revenue and Rewards at Stake
The upcoming Senate discussions focus on the potential limitations of offering rewards on stablecoin deposits. Coinbase has expressed concerns that imposing stricter restrictions could force the company to reconsider support for broader market-structure legislation. The exchange currently offers incentives on USDC stablecoin balances, including interest-like rewards of up to 3.5% for Coinbase One account holders.
Market analysts are weighing the risks carefully. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the likelihood of the bill passing in the first half of 2026 at below 70%. Meanwhile, the American Bankers Association has warned that small businesses, farmers, students, and home buyers could face financial pressure if deposits shift away from traditional banks due to regulatory changes.
Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau maintained his “Outperform” rating on Coinbase but slightly lowered the price target from $381 to $370, reflecting regulatory uncertainties and market volatility.
Technical Updates and Market Indicators
Alongside the regulatory focus, Coinbase addressed technical issues on Monday that briefly delayed some transactions on the Polygon network. The company confirmed that buying, selling, and fiat operations were not affected, keeping investor confidence intact.
Bitcoin, often considered a barometer for crypto-linked stocks, edged higher by 0.5% to around $91,215, providing further support for Coinbase shares. Analysts note that movements in major cryptocurrencies continue to have a direct impact on the valuation of crypto exchanges, reinforcing the interplay between technical performance and regulatory developments.
Regulatory Moves and Strategic Plans
Coinbase has been preparing for tighter oversight in the U.S. In October 2025, the company filed an application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national trust company. If approved, this would allow Coinbase to operate under federal supervision, expand its service offerings, and strengthen its regulatory compliance framework.
The OCC has previously granted conditional approvals to several other national trust applications, signaling a broader effort by U.S. regulators to integrate cryptocurrency firms into established banking frameworks. This step could provide a more stable long-term foundation for Coinbase, even as immediate legislative debates create short-term volatility.
Senate Decision Looms
All eyes will be on the Senate Banking Committee’s executive session on H.R.3633 scheduled for Thursday. Amendments could either solidify Coinbase’s ability to offer stablecoin rewards or impose restrictions that significantly impact revenue. For traders and investors, the outcome of this vote may dictate the near-term trajectory of COIN stock, highlighting the ongoing tension between innovation in the crypto sector and regulatory oversight.
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