Coinbase (COIN) Stock: Why Two Analysts Just Upgraded Shares Before Earnings Today

Table of Contents

TLDR

Coinbase reports third-quarter earnings Thursday afternoon after stock dropped 17% on Aug. 1 following a 39% decline in transaction revenue
Analysts expect $1.8 billion in revenue for Q3, up 49% from last year, with earnings of $1.13 per share versus 28 cents in 2024
H.C. Wainwright double-upgraded Coinbase to Buy with a $425 price target, citing improved crypto trading volumes and transaction fees
The $2.9 billion Deribit acquisition closed in August and may generate the company’s first meaningful derivatives trading revenue
Senate passage of the Clarity Act expected by end of 2025 could boost institutional adoption and drive shares higher

Coinbase Global reports third-quarter earnings Thursday afternoon. The results come after a tough second half of the year for the crypto exchange.

The stock climbed 52% through July. Rising crypto prices and regulatory progress powered the rally.

Then came August 1. Shares plummeted 17% after second-quarter earnings revealed a 39% drop in transaction revenue.

The stock hasn’t recovered those losses yet. It traded down 2.5% to $339.95 at 1 p.m. Eastern time Thursday.

Still, Coinbase remains up 37% in 2025. The company joined the S&P 500 in May, becoming the first crypto firm in the index.

Analysts project $1.8 billion in revenue for the third quarter. That represents 49% growth from last year.

Earnings should hit $1.13 per share. Last year’s third quarter brought just 28 cents per share.

The growth should span the entire business. Consumer transactions, institutional trading, subscriptions, and services all look stronger.

Zacks Equity Research offered slightly different numbers. They forecast $1.03 in earnings per share and $1.75 billion in revenue.

H.C. Wainwright made a big move Thursday. The firm double-upgraded Coinbase from Sell to Buy.

They also raised their price target to $425 from $300. The firm had downgraded the stock to Sell in July, weeks before the August drop.

Analyst Mike Colonnese turned bullish. He expects rising crypto prices and regulatory wins to push the stock higher in Q4.

Higher crypto trading volumes should drive revenue. The company’s take rate on transaction fees looks better than expected.

J.P. Morgan upgraded Coinbase last week too. Kenneth Worthington moved it to Overweight from Neutral with a $404 price target.

The bank sees opportunities beyond crypto trading. Coinbase One subscription service offers new revenue streams.

Coinbase closed its $2.9 billion purchase of Deribit in August. The crypto options exchange could deliver quick results.

H.C. Wainwright expects meaningful derivatives trading revenue. This would mark the first time Coinbase posts real numbers from derivatives.

The acquisition expands Coinbase’s product offerings. Options trading appeals to institutional clients seeking sophisticated tools.

The Genius Act passed in late July. It created a framework for stablecoins like USDC.

Coinbase earns revenue as a distribution partner for USDC. Circle Internet Group issues the token.

Now the industry waits for the Clarity Act. The bill would split regulation between the SEC and CFTC.

The House passed the Clarity Act in July. Industry insiders believe it will unlock institutional adoption of digital assets.

H.C. Wainwright thinks the Senate will approve it by year-end. That would provide another boost for Coinbase shares.

Not everyone shares the optimism. Compass Point’s Ed Engel maintained a Sell rating despite expecting strong Q3 results.

Engel worries about USDC and staking payouts eating into profits. Barclays gave an Equal Weight rating but lowered their target from $365 to $361.

The stock has dropped over 7% in the last four days heading into the earnings report. It last closed higher on Oct. 24.

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