TLDR
- CRWV shares have plummeted approximately 28% following the Q4 earnings release on February 26
- First quarter revenue outlook of $1.9B–$2B fell short of $2.29B analyst expectations
- Fiscal 2026 revenue projection of $12B–$13B came in marginally above the $12B consensus
- Order backlog surged to $66.8B from $55.6B, representing 342% annual growth
- Citi downgraded its price objective to $126 from $135 while reducing FY26 EPS forecast to ($2.97) from $0.75
The market delivered a harsh verdict after CoreWeave unveiled its Q4 financial results following market close on February 26.
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV
Shares tumbled by as much as 21% during Friday’s trading session after the announcement, with the selloff extending through the subsequent week. By the morning of Tuesday, March 3, CRWV had declined an additional 7% during early market hours, accumulating to approximately 28% in total losses since the earnings disclosure.
Fourth quarter revenues reached $1.57B, representing 110% year-over-year expansion, surpassing analyst projections. However, this positive development proved insufficient to counterbalance the concerning elements.
Executive leadership projected Q1 revenues between $1.9B–$2B. This forecast significantly underperformed Wall Street’s $2.29B consensus estimate, emerging as the primary factor triggering investor alarm.
Looking at the full fiscal year, CoreWeave provided FY26 revenue guidance ranging from $12B–$13B, modestly exceeding the $12B average analyst forecast. The company’s backlog expanded from $55.6B to $66.8B — representing a substantial 342% year-over-year increase.
Mounting Losses and Capital Expenditure Concerns
The company recorded net losses of $284M for Q4, a dramatic escalation from the $36M loss reported during the comparable period last year. Loss per share registered at $0.89, significantly worse than the anticipated $0.21 loss consensus.
Interest expenditures for the fourth quarter skyrocketed to $388M, versus $149M in the prior year period. This represents a substantial obstacle to achieving profitability.
Management elevated FY26 CapEx guidance to $30B–$35B, exceeding the $14.9B deployed in FY25 by more than double.
Chief Executive Officer Michel Intrator discussed the CapEx acceleration during the analyst conference call. He emphasized that the capital allocation directly corresponds to secured contractual demand, referencing the $66.8B backlog as justification.
Intrator further highlighted that every agreement for additional capacity is projected to commence revenue generation before the conclusion of 2026.
Approximately 70% of the outstanding backlog is attributed to financially sound, minimal-risk clients. The company’s two primary customers are Meta and Microsoft, both having announced substantial CapEx expansion plans for the current year.
OpenAI, representing another critical customer, secured a $110B financing round last week, alleviating some investor apprehension regarding circular funding arrangements.
CoreWeave concluded FY25 operating 850 MW of active power infrastructure. Contracted power capacity reached 3.1 GW. Management aims to achieve 1.7 GW of operational power by the end of 2026, with a longer-term objective of 5 GW in contracted capacity by 2030.
Wall Street Analyst Reactions
Citi Research responded promptly following the quarterly results, revising projections downward throughout their model.
Analyst Tyler Radke adjusted the FY26 EPS projection to a loss of ($2.97) from a previous profit estimate of $0.75, while reducing the FY27 EPS forecast to ($1.74) from $3.11.
Citi simultaneously reduced its price target for CRWV to $126 from the prior $135 level.
The investment bank indicated it aligned Q1 revenue and operating income projections with management guidance, considering the Q4 shortfall and the Q1 outlook arriving near consensus with approximately two-thirds of the quarter already completed.
Prior to the earnings-related decline, CRWV was valued at a forward EV/Sales multiple of 12.56x. That valuation metric has now contracted to approximately 5–6x based on 2026 revenue forecasts.
Interestingly, the stock had appreciated roughly 9% during the Tuesday preceding the earnings announcement, following President Trump’s State of the Union speech, only to surrender those entire gains and substantially more.
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