Key Takeaways
- WTI crude surged above $100 per barrel while Brent rose 4% to approach $99
- Just four vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, far below normal traffic
- Tehran has implemented a toll collection system, levying charges on ships passing through the waterway
- Iranian officials claim Washington breached the ceasefire agreement; Israel’s Lebanon operations remain a major point of contention
- Both Goldman Sachs and UBS project Brent at $80 for Q4, though they acknowledge significant upward price pressures
Energy markets experienced a dramatic surge on Thursday as the fragile truce between Washington and Tehran appeared to unravel, while the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor remained virtually paralyzed.
Brent crude futures advanced 4% to approximately $98.57 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate surged 6.6% to cross the $100 threshold. Both benchmarks had experienced significant declines on Wednesday following Tuesday’s ceasefire declaration.
The market turnaround occurred as evidence mounted that the ceasefire framework was not producing the anticipated results.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, declared on X that the US-Iran agreement “has been openly and clearly violated.” He cited Israel’s ongoing Lebanon strikes and American drone incursions into Iranian territory as factors making continued discussions “unreasonable.”
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 8, 2026
Tehran provides support to Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and has maintained that any cessation of hostilities must encompass Lebanese territory. However, Washington states its arrangement with Iran excludes Lebanon from the agreement’s scope.
Israeli forces conducted strikes on over 100 Lebanese targets on Wednesday, marking one of the most intense operational days of the campaign. The Israeli Defense Forces have maintained military activities despite global appeals for de-escalation.
Hormuz Waterway Restriction Fuels Market Rally
The Strait of Hormuz facilitates approximately 20% of global oil supply. The critical passage has remained substantially closed since the truce announcement late Tuesday.
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, just four vessels navigated the strait on Wednesday. This figure represents a fraction of typical daily volumes. Reuters confirmed that only a single oil tanker completed the passage within the last 24-hour period.
Iranian authorities have informed mediators they will limit crossings to roughly twelve ships daily while implementing toll charges. Various sources suggest the fee could reach $1 per barrel. Capital Economics characterized this transformation as converting the strait from an unrestricted international waterway into a regulated toll passage.
Dr. Sultan Al-Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, stated on LinkedIn: “The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled.”
Vessel-tracking service MarineTraffic reports over 400 ships remain stranded throughout the area.
Washington Threatens Military Response to Agreement Breakdown
Vice President JD Vance declared Wednesday evening that should the strait fail to begin reopening, the United States would “not going to abide by our terms if the Iranians are not abiding by their terms.”
President Trump posted on Truth Social Thursday morning that American military forces would maintain their Middle Eastern presence “until such time as the real agreement is fully complied with.” He cautioned that should Iran fail to fulfill its obligations, “the ‘shootin’ starts.”
In another post, Trump verified that both nations have agreed the strait would remain open and secure for navigation.
Goldman Sachs researchers indicated they anticipate energy shipments beginning to normalize this weekend, with a progressive month-long restoration to pre-conflict export volumes. Their Q4 Brent projection remains at $80 per barrel while acknowledging elevated risk factors. Should the strait closure extend an additional month, prices could average $100 during Q4. If Persian Gulf producers cannot fully restore production capacity, prices might reach $115.
UBS maintained its $80 Brent forecast for Q4 but highlighted critical uncertainties, including whether Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would dispatch tankers through a waterway now under Iranian control. These two nations have approximately 4 million barrels daily of offline production.
American and Iranian representatives are scheduled to convene in Islamabad, Pakistan, this Saturday.
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