TLDR
- EchoStar stock climbed 6% to $93.54 after reports of a potential 2026 SpaceX IPO
- The company received $8.5 billion in SpaceX stock from selling wireless spectrum in September
- Morgan Stanley set a $110 price target, citing spectrum value and SpaceX exposure
- New Street Research boosted its target to $125 as SpaceX valuation reaches $800 billion
- EchoStar shares have gained 308% this year, trading near 52-week highs
EchoStar stock jumped 6% in Tuesday trading, reaching $93.54 per share. Bloomberg’s report of a possible SpaceX IPO in 2026 drove the rally.
The two companies are deeply linked. EchoStar sold AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses to SpaceX in September. The deal brought EchoStar $8.5 billion worth of SpaceX stock.
That position makes EchoStar a public market play on SpaceX’s private valuation. When SpaceX’s worth increases, EchoStar’s stock moves higher.
SpaceX was valued at $400 billion when the September deal closed. Recent reports put the rocket company’s valuation at $800 billion. That doubling has powered EchoStar’s December gains of 20%.
The stock has climbed 308% year-to-date. Shares now trade just 5% below the 52-week high of $98.90.
Analysts Chase Rising Valuations Higher
New Street Research analyst David Barden increased his EchoStar price target to $125 from $100. He cited SpaceX’s climbing valuation and regulatory changes making spectrum more valuable.
The $25 target increase represents about $9 billion in potential market value. EchoStar has roughly 353 million fully diluted shares outstanding.
Morgan Stanley joined the upgrade parade Wednesday. The bank moved EchoStar to Overweight from Equalweight with a $110 target, up from $82.
The firm sees EchoStar benefiting from its role as a spectrum seller. Both Verizon and T-Mobile want the company’s remaining paired AWS-3 spectrum. Morgan Stanley expects aggressive bidding from carriers who view spectrum as an appreciating asset.
Since September, the average analyst price target has risen $43, moving from $50 to $93. The stock has gained $32 over the same period, leaving an $11 gap between analyst expectations and current prices.
SpaceX Stake Reshapes Valuation Picture
EchoStar’s market capitalization sits at $26.93 billion. That remains below the company’s 2014 peak during the AWS-3 spectrum auction.
Morgan Stanley’s bull case projects $120 per share. The scenario assumes AWS-3 spectrum sells at $3 per MHz pop and values EchoStar’s SpaceX holdings at approximately $40 per share.
Looking at enterprise value tells an interesting story. EchoStar’s total value excluding its SpaceX stake has dropped from $40 billion to $36 billion since September.
The decline appears odd given the bullish spectrum outlook. But the situation is unusual for any public company holding such a large private equity position.
Earnings Miss Fails to Dampen Enthusiasm
EchoStar reported disappointing Q3 results. The company posted a loss of $44.37 per share compared to analyst estimates of $1.21. Revenue of $3.61 billion fell short of the $3.73 billion consensus.
Investors looked past the earnings miss. The market remains focused on two key assets: the SpaceX equity stake and remaining spectrum holdings.
Elon Musk addressed SpaceX fundraising speculation on X. He noted the company generates positive cash flow and doesn’t need to sell stock urgently. But IPO chatter continues to lift EchoStar.
The wireless spectrum EchoStar controls represents a finite resource. Every mobile carrier needs these frequencies to operate networks and expand capacity.
Morgan Stanley expects both Verizon and T-Mobile to pursue EchoStar’s AWS-3 holdings aggressively. The bank describes spectrum as appreciating in value as network demands grow.
EchoStar provides retail investors a path to SpaceX exposure without accessing private markets. The September deal created this unique public market vehicle tied to the world’s most valuable aerospace company.
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