TLDR
- Energy Transfer reported Q4 EPS of $0.25, missing analyst estimates by $0.11, but revenue of $25.32 billion beat expectations by $940 million
- The company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.335 per share (7.1% yield) despite a payout ratio of 107.2%, marking a 3% increase from Q4 2024
- Director Kelcy L. Warren bought 1 million shares at $16.95 in November, bringing his total holdings to approximately 104.6 million shares
- Energy Transfer provided 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $17.45 to $17.85 billion, with 90% coming from fee-based contracts for stable cash flows
- The company is investing $5.0 to $5.5 billion in growth capital for 2026, including major pipeline projects in the Permian Basin and expanded NGL export capacity
Energy Transfer reported mixed Q4 2025 results Tuesday, with earnings falling short of Wall Street expectations while revenue topped forecasts. The pipeline company posted EPS of $0.25, missing analyst estimates of $0.36 by $0.11.
Revenue came in at $25.32 billion for the quarter. This beat the consensus estimate of $23.56 billion by nearly $1 billion.
The stock opened at $18.77 on Tuesday. It trades with a market cap of $64.43 billion and a P/E ratio of 15.01.
Record Volumes Drive Revenue Performance
Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA reached $16 billion, up 3% from 2024. Q4 adjusted EBITDA hit $4.2 billion, representing a 7.7% year-over-year increase.
Record volumes across all major business segments powered the results. Crude oil transportation jumped 6%, while NGL transportation climbed 6%. Interstate natural gas transportation rose 7%.
The company’s leverage ratio remains within its target range of 4.0-4.5x EBITDA. Energy Transfer maintains a return on equity of 10.71% and net margin of 5.66%.
The diversified business model continues to provide stability. NGL and Refined Products contribute 26% of adjusted EBITDA. Midstream and Natural Gas Pipelines each account for 20%. Crude Oil operations make up 18%.
Energy Transfer raised its quarterly dividend to $0.335 per share. This represents an annualized dividend of $1.34 and a yield of 7.1%. The increase marks a 3% bump from the previous $0.33 quarterly payout.
The payout ratio stands at 107.2%, raising questions about sustainability. The ex-dividend date was February 6th, with payment scheduled for February 19th.
Major Growth Projects in Pipeline
Energy Transfer is allocating $5.0 to $5.5 billion in growth capital for 2026. The Desert Southwest Pipeline expansion represents the largest project, featuring a 520-mile, 48-inch pipeline from the Permian Basin to Phoenix.
The company recently upsized the pipeline diameter from 42 to 48 inches. This increases potential capacity from 1.5 Bcf/d to 2.3 Bcf/d. The project carries an estimated cost of $5.6 billion with completion expected by Q4 2029.
The Hugh Brinson Pipeline will connect the Permian Basin to East Texas. Phase I involves constructing 400 miles of 42-inch pipeline with capacity to transport 2.2 Bcf/d from west to east. Phase I completion is scheduled for Q4 2026.
Energy Transfer is expanding NGL export capabilities. The company maintains approximately 20% of worldwide NGL exports. Total NGL export capacity exceeds 1.4 million barrels per day across terminals in Houston, Marcus Hook, and Nederland.
Director Kelcy L. Warren purchased 1 million shares in November at $16.95 per share. The transaction totaled $16.95 million. Warren now owns approximately 104.6 million shares valued at $1.77 billion.
The purchase represented a 0.97% increase in his position. Corporate insiders currently own 3.28% of the company’s stock.
Energy Transfer provided 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $17.45 to $17.85 billion. Approximately 90% of projected earnings come from fee-based contracts. The company signed agreements with Oracle to provide natural gas to three U.S. data centers and secured a 20-year binding agreement with Entergy Louisiana.
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