TLDR
- Ether retail long positions reached 94%, historically a contrarian signal that often precedes price reversals
- BitMine Immersion Technologies purchased over 300,000 ETH worth $417 million during the recent dip below $4,000
- Weekly MACD bearish crossover pattern appears, similar to setups that caused 43% and 61% drops previously
- Binance funding rates remain moderate at 0.01%-0.03%, well below euphoric levels seen during 2021 bull run
- Ether holds support near $3,700 with institutional accumulation offsetting bearish technical warnings
Ether remains under pressure, trading below the $4,000 level after last week’s flash crash. The cryptocurrency is stuck between its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages.
This consolidation pattern shows market indecision. Bulls and bears continue fighting for control in this technical zone.
Data from Hyblock Capital reveals retail traders are extremely bullish on Ether right now. True Retail Accounts show 94% long positioning on the asset.
This places ETH at the 90th percentile among major cryptocurrencies. Only Bitcoin matches this level with 94% retail longs, while Solana trails at 86%.
The extreme retail optimism raises red flags for experienced traders. Hyblock Capital reports that retail long positioning has a -0.86 inverse correlation with ETH price.
When retail longs reach these extreme levels, reversals become more likely. The 90th percentile reading means retail sentiment is overwhelmingly expecting prices to climb.
History shows that overcrowded long positions create dangerous conditions. Traders may rush to take profits or face forced liquidations if the market turns.
Derivatives Market Shows Controlled Optimism
Analyst Pelin Ay examined the derivatives market for additional context. Funding rates on Binance remain positive but controlled.
Current rates sit between 0.01% and 0.03%. These numbers indicate healthy uptrend conditions without excessive speculation.
Compare this to 2021 when funding rates hit 0.1% to 0.2% during peak euphoria. Today’s moderate leverage suggests room for growth remains.
Ay notes that improving spot demand combined with reasonable leverage could push ETH toward $4,500 or $5,000. A funding rate spike above 0.05% would signal overcrowding and potential pullbacks.
Weekly Chart Flashes Bearish Warning
Technical analysts spotted a concerning pattern on Ethereum’s weekly timeframe. A bearish MACD crossover is forming that mirrors previous major corrections.
The signal line is crossing above the MACD line. This same pattern preceded drops of 43% and 61% in the past.
If the crossover confirms, bearish momentum could strengthen quickly. However, the broader structure shows resilience with higher lows since January 2025.
Support at $3,700 has held during recent tests. The 50-week moving average provides additional structural support below current prices.
BitMine Buys During Weakness
BitMine Immersion Technologies made substantial purchases as prices dipped. The Tom Lee-chaired company bought 104,336 ETH worth approximately $417 million on Thursday.
This followed a Sunday purchase of 202,000 ETH. BitMine’s total Ether holdings now carry a market value of $9.3 billion.
The company has steadily increased its position throughout 2025. This demonstrates long-term confidence despite short-term chart warnings.
Large institutional purchases remove supply from exchanges. This can cushion downside moves and attract additional buyers.
Lee maintains his $10,000 year-end price target for Ethereum. He cites growing institutional interest and spot market demand as key drivers.
The contrast between retail positioning and institutional behavior creates an interesting dynamic. Retail traders are heavily long at potentially risky levels while institutions accumulate on weakness.
Funding rates suggest the market hasn’t reached dangerous euphoria yet. The technical picture shows caution with the MACD pattern but support levels remain intact.
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