TLDR

• Ethereum (ETH) ETFs recorded $952 million in outflows over five consecutive days
• Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum with key resistance at $4,360 and support at $4,220
• Monthly gains of 16% driven by GENIUS Act passage despite recent weekly decline of 1.8%
• Market recession fears and weak US jobs data contributing to risk asset selloffs
• Bitcoin ETFs showed opposite trend with $246.4 million in net inflows during same period

Ethereum faces mounting pressure as spot ETFs recorded their fifth consecutive day of outflows. The total withdrawals reached $952 million over this period, with Friday alone accounting for $446.71 million in exits.

This bearish sentiment contrasts with Bitcoin ETF performance. Bitcoin funds attracted $246.4 million in net inflows during the same week, highlighting diverging institutional preferences.

The current outflows follow August’s record performance when Ethereum ETFs pulled in $3.87 billion. Bitcoin ETFs experienced the opposite trend with $751 million in outflows during that month.

Technical Analysis Points to Continued Pressure

Ethereum currently trades below $4,300 after declining 1.8% over the past week. The price has formed a declining channel with immediate resistance at $4,310.

Key technical indicators suggest continued bearish momentum. The hourly MACD is gaining strength in negative territory while RSI has dropped below the critical 50 level.

Critical resistance sits at $4,360, representing the 50% Fibonacci retracement from recent highs. A clear break above this level could propel ETH toward $4,420 resistance.

The 100-hourly Simple Moving Average currently acts as dynamic resistance. Price action remains below this key technical level, confirming short-term bearish bias.

Support levels are well-defined at $4,220 as the first major zone. A breakdown below this area could trigger further selling toward $4,200 and potentially $4,160.

Market Fundamentals Drive Mixed Signals

Despite recent ETF outflows, Ethereum gained over 16% in the past month. The GENIUS Act passage provided regulatory clarity that supported price appreciation.

This legislation restricts stablecoin interest payments and offers clearer institutional investment guidelines. These regulatory improvements have bolstered long-term confidence in Ethereum.

Current market headwinds stem from recession fears and weak economic data. Poor US employment figures have increased Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.

Markets are pricing an 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this month. Polymarket data shows 12% odds for a larger 50 basis point reduction.

Gold prices hitting $3,600 reflect the flight to safety mentality. This risk-off environment is pressuring cryptocurrency investments including ETH holdings.

Ethereum Price Prediction

Short-term technical outlook suggests continued consolidation below $4,360 resistance. A break above this level could target $4,420 and potentially $4,500.

Downside risks point toward $4,220 support testing. Failure to hold this level could trigger deeper corrections toward $4,160 or lower.

The monthly uptrend remains intact despite weekly weakness. Regulatory tailwinds from the GENIUS Act provide fundamental support for medium-term price appreciation.

ETF outflow patterns warrant monitoring as institutional sentiment could influence near-term direction. Economic data releases will likely drive broader market sentiment affecting ETH performance.