TLDR
- Etsy stock climbed 16% after launching Instant Checkout with OpenAI’s ChatGPT
- BTIG increased price target from $72 to $81 with a Buy rating
- Partnership could generate $100 million in Gross Merchandise Value
- U.S. ChatGPT users can now purchase single items from U.S. Etsy sellers
- Shopify joined the program with one million merchants coming soon
Etsy shares jumped nearly 16% on Monday following the announcement of a partnership with OpenAI. The collaboration brings direct shopping capabilities to ChatGPT users across the United States.
The new Instant Checkout feature allows ChatGPT Plus, Pro, and Free users to purchase items from U.S. Etsy sellers. The system was developed with payment processor Stripe.
OpenAI described the launch as the next phase of agentic commerce. ChatGPT now handles both product discovery and transaction completion within a single platform.
Market Response and Analyst Outlook
BTIG responded by raising its price target on Etsy from $72 to $81. The firm maintained its Buy rating on the stock.
Etsy currently trades at $74.34, close to its 52-week high of $75.77. The stock has gained 18.69% over the past week.
The analysts increased their target multiple to 14 times free cash flow from 13 times. They also moved their base valuation year forward to 2027 from 2026.
BTIG estimates the OpenAI partnership could deliver approximately $100 million in Gross Merchandise Value for Etsy. This represents about 0.9% of projected 2025 consolidated GMV.
The projection assumes ChatGPT processes roughly 120 billion U.S. queries annually. About 2.1% of these queries relate to shopping activities.
Revenue Potential and Platform Expansion
Analysts believe ChatGPT could generate 75 to 100 million U.S. online orders each year. Etsy might capture around 2.2 million of those transactions.
BTIG thinks the partnership could help Etsy return to GMV growth next year. Current forecasts predict a slight decline instead.
Shopify also joined the initiative, with one million merchants preparing to join ChatGPT shopping. Shopify stock rose over 6% on Monday. Brands like Glossier and SKIMS will be available through the platform.
OpenAI plans to add multi-item shopping carts and expand to more regions later. The company will charge merchants a small fee on completed purchases while keeping the service free for users.
Product prices through Instant Checkout match those on the original websites. OpenAI confirmed the feature won’t influence ChatGPT’s product recommendations.
When multiple merchants sell the same item, ChatGPT evaluates availability, price, quality, and primary seller status. The algorithm also checks whether Instant Checkout is enabled to optimize user experience.
Other analysts remain cautious on Etsy. Stifel maintained its Hold rating with a $64 price target. Cantor Fitzgerald kept its Neutral stance at $64, pointing to cross-border transaction risks.
Cross-border transactions account for roughly 25% of Etsy’s total Gross Merchandise Sales. Imports make up the majority of that international business. The company plans to move its listing from Nasdaq to the New York Stock Exchange in October 2025.
