Quick Summary
- Stock futures rebounded Monday following Wall Street’s third consecutive weekly decline
- Crude oil surged beyond $100 per barrel due to Iran conflict blocking Strait of Hormuz, sparking inflation concerns
- Federal Reserve rate decision scheduled for Wednesday; Chair Powell’s remarks anticipated as critical market catalyst
- Nvidia’s GTC developer summit begins Monday featuring CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote presentation
- Notable earnings releases this week include Micron, FedEx, Dollar Tree, and Alibaba
U.S. equity futures showed positive momentum Monday morning, recovering from Wall Street’s challenging prior week. Dow Jones futures advanced 141 points, while S&P 500 futures added 33 points and Nasdaq 100 futures surged 131 points.
The uptick comes after a three-week losing streak for major indices. Last week saw the S&P 500 decline 1.6%, the Dow Jones drop 2%, and the Nasdaq slip 1.3%.
Energy markets have emerged as the primary catalyst behind recent market turbulence. The Iranian conflict has now entered its third week with no resolution in sight.
The Strait of Hormuz—a critical shipping channel south of Iran—transports approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil daily. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has declared its intention to prevent “a liter of oil” from transiting the waterway. This strategic chokepoint accounts for roughly one-fifth of worldwide tanker movements.
Oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel last Sunday, marking the first time since the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Brent crude advanced 2.7% to $105.90 on Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased 2.0% to $98.75.
Over the weekend, President Trump appealed to seven countries to assist in securing passage through the strait. He additionally pressed NATO allies to take action in reopening the vital shipping lane. In remarks to the Financial Times, Trump warned that inaction “will be a very bad for the future of NATO.”
Trump specifically highlighted China’s role and indicated he may postpone a scheduled April meeting with President Xi Jinping unless Beijing leverages its diplomatic influence to restore access to the waterway.
The International Energy Agency announced plans to deploy 411.9 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate potential supply disruptions.
All Eyes on Federal Reserve Policy Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Wednesday for its latest policy decision. The current federal funds rate stands at 3.5% to 3.75%. Market expectations overwhelmingly favor maintaining rates at current levels.
Chair Powell’s subsequent press briefing may prove more significant than the rate announcement itself. Federal Reserve officials remain divided—some advocate for rate reductions citing labor market softness, while others express concern about oil-induced inflationary pressure. This marks Powell’s penultimate press conference before his chairmanship concludes in May.
Goldman Sachs projects that an extended 60-day closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude to an average of $93 per barrel during the fourth quarter.
Nvidia Conference and Corporate Earnings Calendar
Nvidia’s annual GTC 2026 conference launches Monday. CEO Jensen Huang is anticipated to reveal a revolutionary inference-optimized processor incorporating technology from Groq, the artificial intelligence startup Nvidia purchased for $17 billion last December.
Micron Technology delivers quarterly results Wednesday. The semiconductor manufacturer’s shares have surged more than fourfold over the previous twelve months. Its most recent quarter demonstrated a 60% year-over-year revenue increase.
FedEx releases earnings Thursday alongside Alibaba. Dollar Tree also reports, providing insight into retail consumer behavior. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng announces results Friday.
The February Producer Price Index will be published Wednesday, following January’s data that revealed wholesale price increases exceeding analyst predictions.
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