TLDR
- Ferrari shares crashed over 14% on Thursday, marking one of the worst trading days since the company went public in 2016.
- The company raised its 2025 revenue forecast to at least ā¬7.1 billion but disappointed investors with its 2030 guidance of around ā¬9 billion in net revenue.
- Ferrari cut its electric vehicle target from 40% to just 20% of its 2030 lineup, citing client preferences and market conditions.
- The company unveiled the chassis and powertrain for its first EV, the elettrica, scheduled for delivery in late 2026 with a global premiere next year.
- Analysts at Citi said the guidance fell below expectations and reflected conservative management, while JPMorgan remained bullish on Ferrari’s long-term execution ability.
Ferrari stock took a beating Thursday, dropping more than 14% after the luxury carmaker revised its electrification goals and updated its financial guidance. The Milan-listed shares fell as much as 16.1% before recovering slightly to close down 13.2%.
U.S.-listed shares opened at $419.18, down roughly 13%. The stock briefly touched territory that would have marked its worst trading day since Ferrari went public on the Milan exchange in early 2016.
The sell-off came after Ferrari’s Capital Markets Day event, where management laid out plans that failed to meet Wall Street’s expectations. Analysts weren’t impressed with what they heard.
The Maranello-based manufacturer raised its 2025 net revenue forecast to at least ā¬7.1 billion from a previous target of more than ā¬7 billion. That part was fine.
But the 2030 guidance caught investors off guard. Ferrari expects net revenue of around ā¬9 billion by the end of the decade.
The company is targeting EBITDA of at least ā¬3.6 billion by 2030. Citi analysts said the numbers “falls below our ‘lower growth case’ estimates.”
They added that the guidance “implies limited operating leverage through the coming cycle.” The conservative approach from management could put pressure on both earnings estimates and stock multiples in the near term.
Electric Strategy Gets Rewritten
Ferrari made a bigger change to its electrification roadmap. The company now plans for its 2030 sports car lineup to consist of 40% internal combustion engine vehicles, 40% hybrids, and 20% fully electric models.
That’s a sharp reduction from the previous goal of 40% EV sales by 2030. Ferrari said the decision reflects a client-centric approach and current market realities.
The company did unveil something tangible during the event. Ferrari showed off the production-ready chassis and powertrain for its first electric vehicle, dubbed the elettrica.
Deliveries of the model are slated to begin in late 2026. The completed car will make its global debut next year.
Executive chairman John Elkann said the elettrica represents Ferrari’s commitment to progress through technology, design, and manufacturing. The company has been working on the EV in near-total secrecy at its E-building factory.
Market Conditions Force Adjustments
Ferrari isn’t alone in pulling back on electric ambitions. Several global automakers have scaled back EV targets in recent months.
Sweden’s Volvo Cars abandoned its plan to sell only EVs by 2030. The company said it needed to be “pragmatic and flexible” as market conditions changed.
Factors driving these decisions include a lack of affordable models, slower charging infrastructure rollout, and intense competition from Chinese manufacturers. Ferrari cited similar reasons for its strategy shift.
The company’s client base continues to grow. Active clients now number 90,000, up 20% from 2022 levels.
Ferrari plans to launch an average of four new cars per year between 2026 and 2030. The product pipeline remains full despite the slower EV rollout.
Analyst Split on Outlook
Not everyone was down on the update. JPMorgan analysts struck a more optimistic tone in their research note.
They expressed confidence in management’s ability to execute the long-term plan. The analysts pointed to evidence that demand far exceeds supply for Ferrari vehicles.
JPMorgan also highlighted CEO Benedetto Vigna’s leadership style. They said his focus on collaboration has increased the speed at which Ferrari embraces innovation.
The analysts mentioned that an imminent supercar launch could turbocharge profits. That model could help offset concerns about the tempered growth targets.
Ferrari’s U.S.-listed shares carry a market cap of nearly $80 billion. After Thursday’s decline, the stock is now down about 1% for the year.
The elettrica will start deliveries in late 2026 following its global premiere next year.
