TLDR
- Firefly Aerospace posted Q3 revenue of $30.8 million, exceeding Wall Street’s $27.5 million forecast by 12%.
- Full-year 2025 revenue guidance increased to $150-158 million, above analyst projections of $136 million.
- Stock surged 24% in premarket trading to $22.75 after falling from post-IPO high of $73.80 to $19.13.
- Alpha rocket offers 1,000 kilogram payload capacity, triple Rocket Lab’s 300 kilogram Electron capacity.
- Company closed SciTec acquisition with $260 million credit facility and secured $176.7 million NASA lunar contract.
Firefly Aerospace just gave investors something to celebrate. The space launch company crushed third-quarter expectations with $30.8 million in revenue, beating Wall Street’s $27.5 million estimate.
Shares jumped 24% to $22.75 in premarket trading Wednesday. That’s a welcome relief after the stock crashed from $73.80 to $19.13 following its August IPO at $45.
The quarter-over-quarter revenue growth hit 98%. Year-over-year numbers showed 38% growth as spacecraft contracts reached key milestones.
The company reported a $1.50 per-share loss. Analysts expected just 42 cents, but losses don’t matter much right now for growth-stage space companies.
Revenue Outlook Gets Major Upgrade
Firefly raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $150-158 million. That crushes the $136 million Wall Street was expecting.
The new forecast suggests fourth-quarter revenue around $52 million. Current estimates sit at only $36 million for the period.
The company closed its SciTec acquisition during the quarter. A $260 million revolving credit facility supports the deal and boosts liquidity.
Profitability remains years away. Wall Street projects positive operating income by 2027, matching Rocket Lab’s timeline.
Valuation Gap With Rocket Lab
Here’s where things get interesting. Rocket Lab trades at a $31 billion valuation, roughly 27 times estimated 2027 sales.
Firefly sits at just $3 billion, trading under four times the same metric. That’s a massive valuation gap for companies targeting similar markets.
Alpha can haul 1,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit. Rocket Lab’s Electron carries just 300 kilograms.
Electron flew over 20 times in 2025. Alpha launched once in April with a Lockheed Martin payload.
The difference comes down to development stage. Rocket Lab has more flight history, while Firefly offers faster deployment and bigger capacity.
Bouncing Back From Setbacks
Second-quarter results disappointed with $15.5 million in revenue against $16.8 million expectations. That didn’t help post-IPO momentum.
September brought worse news. An Alpha first stage was lost during ground testing on September 29.
Shares dropped 21% the next day to $29.32. The incident complicated the stock’s recovery efforts.
The test stand survived and upgrades are underway. Corrective measures have been implemented across the program.
Alpha Flight 7 targets launch between late Q4 and early Q1. The second stage already reached the launch site, with the first stage preparing to ship.
Contract Wins Build Pipeline
NASA handed Firefly a $176.7 million contract for Blue Ghost Mission 4. The mission delivers payloads to the Moon’s south pole.
An additional $10 million came from NASA for Blue Ghost Mission 1. The money covers extra lunar data collection beyond original requirements.
Blue Ghost Mission 2 hardware completed qualification testing at the Texas facility. Elytra spacecraft assembly is progressing in the cleanroom.
Firefly logged over 200 hours of mission simulation for Elytra Mission 1. The company also signed agreements to study Alpha launches from Japan’s Hokkaido Spaceport.
NASA awarded an Elytra study contract for multi-orbit delivery missions. These contracts build a healthy pipeline heading into 2026.
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