TLDR
- Jim Cramer predicts Ford stock may fall below $11 following Thursday’s earnings report
- A fire at a critical aluminum plant has caused operational disruptions across Ford’s business
- Analysts project flat revenue of $46.33 billion for the quarter with earnings at $0.36 per share
- Ford beat revenue estimates by 7.8% last quarter but fire damage creates uncertainty this time
- Shares trade at $12.56, up 7.7% this month, while analyst price target sits at $11.50
Ford prepares to release quarterly earnings Thursday after market close. A fire at a key aluminum plant casts doubt over the automaker’s results.
Jim Cramer issued a warning about Ford shares during his market analysis. The CNBC host focused on potential damage from the aluminum facility fire.
“If the numbers do come down, I think the stock could slip below 11,” Cramer said. His comments reflect growing concern about production disruptions.
The aluminum plant fire affected multiple areas of Ford’s operations. Cramer addressed the issue again when answering an investor question on October 10.
“I was thrown by the impact that this fire had, and it’s caused me to recalibrate,” he explained. While Cramer maintains Ford is fundamentally strong, he believes current estimates may not account for fire-related losses.
What Wall Street Expects
Analysts forecast Ford will post $46.33 billion in revenue for the quarter. This represents no growth compared to the prior year period.
The projection shows a deceleration from the 5.5% growth Ford achieved in last year’s third quarter. Wall Street expects adjusted earnings of $0.36 per share.
Ford’s recent performance has been solid. Last quarter the company reported $50.18 billion in revenue, exceeding analyst forecasts by 7.8%.
That result marked 5% year-over-year growth. Ford also beat expectations for adjusted operating income.
The company has only missed revenue estimates once in the past two years. Ford has topped projections by an average of 4.1% during that span.
Stock Performance and Analyst Views
Ford shares have gained 7.7% over the past month. This outperforms the 1.8% average increase in the industrials sector.
The stock currently trades at $12.56 per share. Analysts maintain a consensus price target of $11.50.
Estimates have held steady over the last 30 days. Most analysts covering Ford have kept their projections unchanged heading into earnings.
Competitors have shown mixed quarterly results. General Motors delivered flat revenue growth but exceeded estimates by 7.9%.
Vicor posted stronger numbers with 18.5% revenue growth. The company beat analyst forecasts by 15.7%.
Fire Impact Remains Unknown
The aluminum plant fire represents the biggest question mark for Ford’s earnings. Cramer’s cautious stance highlights uncertainty about the financial impact.
Thursday’s report will determine whether Ford can continue its streak of beating revenue expectations. Investors want clarity on production losses and additional costs from the fire.
Analyst estimates staying flat suggests Wall Street is taking a wait-and-see approach. The consistency in forecasts indicates analysts need more information about fire damage.
Ford reports earnings Thursday after the closing bell. The company faces pressure to address how the aluminum plant fire affected quarterly performance.
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