TLDR
- Piper Sandler reiterates Overweight rating on Ford stock with $16 price target following 2026 EBIT guidance that met consensus expectations
- Ford shares gained 58.26% over the past year and traded up 0.6% in after-hours following earnings guidance announcement
- Analysts see upside from Ford Pro segment share gains, warranty improvements, and potential early restart of Novelis aluminum plant in May
- Ford’s Q4 2025 EPS of $0.13 missed analyst expectations of $0.18, but revenue beat forecasts at $45.9 billion versus $44.2 billion expected
- Zacks upgraded Ford to Rank #1 Strong Buy with consensus estimates rising 4.4% for current quarter and 5% for fiscal year
Ford shares climbed 0.6% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the automaker delivered 2026 EBIT guidance that aligned with Wall Street expectations. Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating and $16 price target on the stock.
The research firm believes Ford has a clear path to meeting or exceeding the top end of its guidance range. Analysts pointed to several catalysts that could drive outperformance in 2026.
The Ford Pro segment presents the biggest opportunity. Share gains in this high-margin commercial vehicle business could offset losses from discontinuing the low-margin Ford Escape. This shift would improve overall profitability even if total unit sales remain flat.
Warranty performance continues trending in the right direction. Ford has made progress reducing warranty costs over recent quarters. Further improvements here would drop straight to the bottom line.
The Novelis aluminum plant restart timeline could accelerate. Current estimates call for a September restart, but the facility might come back online as early as May. An earlier restart would boost production capacity and reduce supply chain constraints.
Mixed Q4 Results Tell Different Story
Ford’s fourth-quarter 2025 results showed the challenges facing the automaker. EPS came in at $0.13, missing the $0.18 analyst consensus by 27.78%. This marked a sharp decline from $0.39 per share in the year-ago period.
Revenue told a different story. Ford posted $45.9 billion in Q4, beating the $44.2 billion estimate by 3.85%. The company has now beaten revenue expectations in each of the past four quarters.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 11.68, below the automotive sector average. This valuation looks attractive given the company’s near-term earnings growth projections.
Analyst Estimates Trend Higher
Wall Street analysts have been raising their Ford estimates over the past 30 days. The current quarter consensus moved up 4.4% to $0.27 per share. This represents 92.9% growth year-over-year.
Full-year 2026 estimates increased 5% to $1.52 per share. That implies 39.5% growth compared to 2025 results. Looking further out, 2027 estimates rose 4.8% to $1.81 per share.
The upward revision trend earned Ford a Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy rating. The proprietary ranking system focuses on earnings estimate changes as the key driver of near-term stock performance.
Revenue projections call for modest growth ahead. Analysts expect $39.51 billion in the current quarter, up 5.6% year-over-year. Full-year 2026 revenue estimates sit at $172.52 billion, down 0.9% from 2025.
Valuation Picture Looks Attractive
Ford earned a Zacks Value Style Score of A, indicating the stock trades at a discount to industry peers. The company’s valuation multiples remain compressed despite improving fundamentals.
The stock has delivered 58.26% total returns over the past year, crushing most automotive competitors. Shares gained 3.8% over the past month while the S&P 500 fell 1.7%.
Piper Sandler maintains that both macroeconomic tailwinds and company-specific factors support their bullish thesis. The firm sees Ford controlling its own destiny absent unforeseen external shocks.
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