Key Takeaways
- Circle Internet (CRCL) shares momentarily touched $90 before stabilizing around $87, following Wednesday’s approximately 30% earnings-driven rally
- Fourth quarter 2025 earnings per share reached $0.43, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.35; revenue totaled $770 million, marking a 77% increase from last year
- Bernstein maintained its Outperform recommendation with a $190 price objective, characterizing the performance as a “clear divergence from crypto”
- Mizuho increased its price objective to $90 from $77 while maintaining a Neutral stance, noting interest-rate reductions as a possible risk factor
- William Blair and Clear Street both released optimistic assessments; Clear Street elevated its target from $85 to $92
Shares of Circle Internet Group experienced a brief spike above $90 on Thursday before consolidating around $87.
The move followed Wednesday’s approximately 30% rally triggered by impressive fourth-quarter financial results.
Fourth Quarter Performance
Circle delivered fourth quarter 2025 earnings per share of $0.43, surpassing Wall Street’s $0.35 consensus estimate by roughly 23%. The company reported $770 million in revenue, representing a 77% year-over-year increase.
These figures prompted responses from multiple Wall Street research teams, each offering distinct perspectives on the stock’s trajectory.
Bernstein maintained its Outperform recommendation while reaffirming its $190 price objective. The research firm characterized the quarterly performance as representing a “clear divergence from crypto,” highlighting improved transaction revenue and expanding blockchain rewards stemming from Circle’s super validator position on the Canton network.
A notable metric highlighted by Bernstein: USDC stored directly on Circle’s platform increased to 17% of total circulation in Q4, advancing from 14% in the previous quarter.
Management guidance indicates expectations for USDC circulation to grow at a 40% annual compound rate, while projecting other revenue streams could reach $170 million in 2026, up from $110 million in 2025.
Wall Street Divided on Future Potential
Mizuho’s Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins elevated their price objective to $90 from $77 while maintaining a Neutral recommendation.
They highlighted prediction platforms like Polymarket as a “visible, scaled USDC use case,” driving substantial transaction activity that bolsters both revenue streams and reserve holdings. Company leadership identified Polymarket as a significant factor in recent USDC expansion.
Mizuho also identified “agentic AI” — autonomous software agents utilizing internet-native currency — as a potential long-term catalyst for USDC adoption, despite currently limited transaction volumes.
However, the firm cautioned that prospective interest-rate reductions pose a risk. Reserve income continues to represent the majority of Circle’s revenue generation, making it vulnerable to rate decreases.
Additional Analyst Commentary
William Blair maintained its Outperform recommendation and suggested long-term investors should consider accumulating shares.
The firm views USDC as positioned to become the leading commerce-oriented stablecoin, supported by 100% fiat reserve backing, regulatory adherence, and expanding network effects. William Blair referenced an approximately $20 trillion cross-border B2B payment sector as the long-term addressable market, while acknowledging limited visibility into complete market penetration.
Wall Street analysts project 62% revenue expansion for Circle during the current fiscal year.
Clear Street increased its price objective to $92 from $85 while maintaining a Hold recommendation, citing enhanced fundamentals following the “strong” quarterly disclosure.
Circle is currently trading around $81.88 with a $14.45 billion market capitalization, though shares remain down approximately 51% over the trailing six-month period.
According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains a net cash position with more cash than debt on its balance sheet.
Bernstein identified Circle’s Arc product, the Circle Payments Network, and emerging agentic payment capabilities as key product development areas heading into 2026.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
