TLDR
- Fourth quarter orders reached $22.2 billion, doubling sales of $11 billion
- 2026 revenue guidance increased to $44.5 billion from $41.5 billion midpoint
- Ebitda of $1.2 billion missed Wall Street’s $1.3 billion forecast
- Shares dropped 1.3% to $683.91 after opening up 6%
- Prolec acquisition closing weeks early, boosting 2026 revenue outlook
GE Vernova stock turned negative Wednesday despite raising revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2028. Shares jumped 6% at the open before reversing to close down 1.3% at $683.91.
The energy company reported fourth quarter Ebitda of $1.2 billion on revenue of $11 billion. Wall Street expected $1.3 billion and $10.6 billion.
Orders told a different story. The company booked $22.2 billion in new business, more than double quarterly sales. BofA analyst Andrew Obin had projected just $17.6 billion.
Strong order flow prompted management to lift guidance. The 2026 revenue target moved to $44.5 billion from $41.5 billion. The 2028 forecast jumped to $56 billion from $52 billion.
This marked the second guidance boost since early December. The company had just provided multi-year outlooks at an investor event six weeks ago.
Margin Expansion on the Horizon
New orders came with better profitability. Management projects 2026 Ebitda margins around 12% versus 8.4% in 2025. Margins should reach 20% by 2028, implying roughly $11.2 billion in Ebitda.
The stock’s fade likely reflects 2025 profit expectations. Guidance points to $5.34 billion in Ebitda. Analysts want $5.47 billion.
Valuation matters here. Shares had surged 95% over the prior year. The stock trades at 51 times forward earnings.
Revenue climbed 3.8% to $10.96 billion, topping the $10.22 billion consensus. The power division saw orders surge 78%. Gas power equipment orders tripled year-over-year on higher volumes and pricing.
Data centers represented about one-third of fourth quarter turbine orders. Utilities are also moving toward natural gas turbines as electricity demand grows.
Strength Across Business Units
Wind orders increased 55% despite lower revenue in that segment. The electrification business posted 55% order growth with revenue up 36%.
Net income hit $3.67 billion compared to $484 million a year earlier. A $2.57 billion tax benefit helped results. Earnings of $13.39 per share crushed the $3.28 estimate.
The Prolec deal will close within days instead of mid-2026. The accelerated timeline contributed to higher 2026 revenue guidance.
CEO Scott Strazik emphasized execution as the key challenge with strong industry tailwinds. He wants the company to stay “hungry and humble” to capitalize on opportunities.
About 69% of analysts rate GEV a buy, above the 55% S&P 500 average. The mean price target stands at $768, up $76 since December. Obin maintains a buy rating with an $804 target.
The company expects 2026 revenue between $44 billion and $45 billion. The Prolec acquisition accounts for part of the increase. The 2028 target of $56 billion reflects ongoing growth across all segments.
Fourth quarter profit included the large tax benefit. Revenue in the power unit benefited from gas turbine demand. Orders across electrification jumped on infrastructure needs.
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